In my considered opinion, Nigeria's world cup will come down to Kaliningrad on June 16. For me, given the schedule of games, the loser goes home; period....
The biggest tactical question Nigeria will face in this game in particular and in the world cup in general, will be how to play within limited space and time.
Nigeria's world cup will be defined by possession. But not in absolute numbers, rather the efficiency of possession, when she has the ball, and the organization in the non-possession phase when/if the opponent has controlled possession.
This is why I see an almighty 'gunfight' in central midfield at the Arena Baltika, and everybody better come with their weapons, fully loaded, with intent to execute, with neither malice nor charity, and no prisoners taken!!!
There's a quiet confidence within the Croatian camp that it would be a big mistake for Nigeria to high press in midfield, and that with elite midfielders in Modric, Rakitic, Brozovic and Kovacic, they possess the experience and craft to easily play through the first line of Nigerian high press by slowing the tempo and 'boxing' the Super Eagles, before switching to undefended zones and then unbalance Nigeria in defence, with quick through balls behind the fullbacks, or in the space on either side of central defence.
All available evidence points to the ability of the Nigerian first press to reach its mark, given the athleticism of the key central midfielders. Whether this can be accomplished without resort to card inducing fouls, is an open question, as we say in that friendly Croatia vs Senegal. However the first press is not my main concern. My concern is the second ball and the limited options around that ball in the attacking phase.
And why is this a concern? One word- the counter press! The limitation in options will increase the likelihood of success of the counter press, and this Nigerian team is not as yet well organized in this phase, although much better organized than Croatia faced against Senegal. There remains a critical lack of communication across the lines dividing the defined roles, with certain units not pushing up, or back in tandem.
Take the annoying friendly against England, which allowed Southgate fulfill all his tactical wet dreams..Kane's movement, like the gyrations of an experienced lap-dancer, would repeatedly draw Ekong out, with no corresponding defensive movement from midfield, leaving the Nigerian central defense wide open...
My second concern is what happens when the opponent inevitably raises the tempo and attempts to play through the Nigerian midfield at pace, having used possession to tire out the Nigerian central midfielders.
Offensively, the Nigerian attacking game appears to be at its most productive when the opponent is isolated in space. In the counterattacking phase, this Nigerian team will primarily beat you with pace and the dribble in open play. There needs to be more. There needs to be greater work on ball possession.
The first friendly against Poland gave a few glimpses of some of Nigeria's characteristics; the second was a complete wash, a nothing burger...For full disclosure, I am not a fan of pre-World Cup friendlies. For the most part, they show nothing and prove little. It leaves both players and managers in a no-win situation, and even the limited set of objectives that managers plan for, are never worth the price of tournament ending injuries....
However as I stated earlier, this is a different kind of Nigerian team, and Super Eagles fans are well advised to discard expectations of a typical Nigerian flamboyance. This is a team that is being built on organization, resilience and efficiency on the counter. Whether they can achieve this is an open question.
In Rohr, the team has a thoroughly understated, conservative and average manager, but one who is well aware of the strengths and limitations of his team.
The key question is, given everything said, can this Nigeria team beat Croatia? The simple answer is that given the vulnerabilities in the Croatian defense, Nigeria will get opportunities and can beat the Croats. But there is little doubt in my mind that Croatia will start with some clear advantages over Nigeria in both playing personnel and team structures. Overall a lot for Nigeria will depend on how well Rohr calibrates his tactics and the maximum concentration of the players.
In my opinion, it would be a mistake for Nigeria to implement a full-court high-press against Croatia. Instead, it must be situational, and the team must find the right moments to press and the right balance between the high press and a low/medium block. And with the blistering pace upfront and vertical threats like Musa, either out wide or centrally, the team can retain an attacking threat even while sitting deep.
Whatever happens, this could be a new phase in Nigerian national team football, both in terms of the players and the team tactics.
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