Oliseh's Super Eagles Emerging; Somewhat....

Two friendlies against Congo DR and Cameroon begin to show clearer the footprints of Oliseh's tenure as coach of the Super Eagles.

The most visible imprints lie in the possession phase of the game, specifically in the build-up stage, with a focus on a more methodical approach, especially in midfield.

The loss against Congo DR showed a team with sterile possession, lacking the right tempo and movement to endow its passing game with cutting edge in the last third.

An improved performance against Cameroon led to a 2-0 win, albeit with a little help from a 'compliant' Indomitable Lions team, and Stephen M'bia at his daft best!

Two major tactical issues stand out from both matches:

Considerable work still remains to be done in organization of the team in the non-possession phase, especially in central midfield. Lacking any truly creative midfielders, successive managers have in recent times looked to Mikel to assume greater responsibilities upfield. The impact has often been a concomitant loss of his best qualities from his club career, as the 'keeper of the team shape'...

In my opinion, we should consider restructuring the shape in central midfield with Mikel in a deeper role, in a 1-2 inverted triangle shape. Such a move must necessarily recognize that Igboun is not a midfielder but a forward; specifically a wide forward.

While the spacing between players has improved, you get the sense that sterner opposition will expose the frailties of the team's organization. In many respects, spacing in football has interesting parallels with a lady's mini skirt! Long enough to cover the essential parts, but short enough to be attractive...

There is a lack of consistency in the spacing between players, with the result that the team does not dominate space as well as it could, there are not enough lines of support around the ball and the tempo of the passing game remains lukewarm.

Related to the structural issues is continuing problems of the quality of options available to the team. As stated earlier, the use of Igboun in midfield is a disservice to both the player and the team. Although energetic, Onazi often does not display the same level of tactical awareness, while a player in left midfield is completely lacking in this selection.

In defence, the performance of Balogun as a 'front foot' centerback was very encouraging. If he is to remain in the role however, a powerful stopper is required behind him. While Omeruo has the potential to fill such a role, his recent performance and continuing lack of first team football is clear evidence of the merit in Oliseh's selection policy.

Recurring gaps from undefended zones continue to persist behind the lateral defence, especially on the right where the lack of a quality is palpable.

It is hard to see Oliseh's rebuilding project succeed and the small improvements made so far sustained without sufficiently addressing the problems in central defence.

In attack there needs to be clearer definition of lines of movement, as well as the requisite support around the ball, whether attacking diagonally or when stretching the field wide.

I continue to believe in the long term merits of Oliseh's selection policy. There will be those who will criticize this policy as naive, not practical or sustainable. I couldn't disagree more! A team whose players are selected simply on the basis of past performance or club profile, is a team living on borrowed time. . 

But the flip side of this is that Oliseh must back this up by an aggressive search for the players to match his philosophy of the game. Such an aggressive mindset would need to ignore the club profile of players, or phony classifications of age grades....

The Challenge of Rebuilding the Super Eagles

Two games do not normally constitute enough body of work to assess the performance of a coach, and I will not attempt to do so with respect to Sunday Oliseh's tenure so far.

However, his much publicized selection policy is of interest to me, especially because of the vital role that this has played in the failures of successive Nigerian coaches of the Super Eagles.

The pool of players available to national team selectors in Nigeria can be divided into four broad categories.

The first pool of players comprises established national team players among whom are the following: Enyeama,  Ambrose, Omeruo, Oboabona, Uwa; Mikel Obi, Onazi; Emenike, Musa, Moses.

The challenge for national team selectors is the fact that apart from Enyeama who has played at a consistently high level, the rest of this group have had their careers either stagnate, become inconsistent or out-rightly decline.

The second pool comprises fringe players who have made periodic appearances in the national team. This comprises a long list of players some of whom are Ejide, Egwueke, Oshaniwa, Kwambe, Raheem Lawal, John Ogu, Aaron Samuel, Obiora Nwankwo, Gbolahan Salami, Rabiu Ibrahim, Michael Babatunde, etc.

The difficulty for national team selectors in assessing this group is the clear lack of consistency in the careers of many of these players, with several shuttling between the NPL and trials in Europe. Under Keshi, For example, under Stephen Keshi, Oshaniwa made his debut and remained a regular until his international transfer, after which he seemed to disappear, only to return and feature prominently at the world cup, following an injury to Echiejile. Others have shuttled between minor clubs in the low tier European leagues.

The biggest challenge for national team selectors especially resides within this group, with many of the Euro-based players having had nomadic careers, shuttling between minor leagues, and their homebased counterparts navigating successive failed trials in Europe. The result is that few from this group have had settled careers, and overall have contributed least to the national team, compared to other groups. 

In my considered opinion, any call-ups from this group will need to be made with the most careful consideration. An analysis of call-ups by Sunday Oliseh so far shows that invitees from this group includes, Lukman Haruna, Sylvester Igboun, Izunna Uzochukwu, Rabiu Ibrahim, Obiora Nwankwo and Solomon Kwambe. None of these players have put in anything resembling a quality performance.

What is more, under Stephen Keshi and Siasia before him, players from this group have equally performed poorly, especially under the former. Analyzing this group further, one can conclude with certainty that the stagnation that followed Keshi's performance post-ANC 2013 can be traced to his repeated call-ups and persistence with players from this group, even when their contributions did not warrant a recall. The highlight of this being the notorious case of Gabriel Okechukwu including the decision to go to the world cup with the likes of Michael Uchebo, Reuben Gabriel and Uche Nwofor. Indeed, ten of Nigeria's world cup squad was drawn from this group!

The third pool of players comprise some emerging talent from both the domestic as well as European leagues, comprising such players as Moses Simon, Leon Balogun, William-Troos Ekong, Ighalo, Ujah, Kingsley Madu, Prince Aggrey, Mohmmed Usman, etc.

The fourth and final pool of players comprise players from our youth teams, many of whom are yet to make their international debuts with the Super Eagles, as well as diaspora Nigerians (including those with Nigerian parentage). Among these are such talents as Kelechi Iheanacho, Taiwo Awoniyi, Genk center-back, Wilfred Ndidi, Michael Olaitan, Godswill Ekpolor, Kelvin Akpoguma, Kenneth Otigba, etc.

The challenge for Sunday Oliseh and national team selectors is to focus player call-ups on players whose growth curve is trending upwards, wherever they may be domiciled, regardless of what experience they may have or how young they may claim. 

Perhaps the greatest irony of Nigerian football is the fact that at any one time, the best players from the Nigerian domestic game can be found in any one of our youth teams. And when they perform brilliantly at this level, we delude ourselves into thinking they are too young for the senior team!

Take the case of Stanley Okoro, who at the time of his superstar status with the U-17 'Golden Eaglets' was a top scorer for Heartland in the CAF Champions league, ostensibly considered 'too young' for the Super Eagles even when his standard was at least at the top end of the African club championship! The result was that he would go from playing in the finals of the CAF champions league to the reserves at Spanish basement club Almeria, as an academy scholar! From Almeria he would be sent on a season long loan in 2013 to the anonymous Bulgarian team, Cherno More. Nothing more has been heard of him since then...

The moral of the above story is that the only victims of our approach to youth football is Nigeria. Many of the players we parade from the U-17 to the U-23 levels are some of the best players in the domestic game in their positions, including some of those strategically 'parked' at our local academies to facilitate their international transfers.

While the MRI test might analyze the bone density of our players and certify them eligible for the U-17 team, they will not, and cannot reveal the iniquities underlying an approach that wastes some of the best years of our most talented footballers, like Macauley Chrisantus, top scorer and Silver Boot winner at the  2007 FIFA U-17 World Cup in Korea, a veteran of European basement league football at 25, having migrated from Hamburger SV to Hamburger SV II, Karlsruher SC, FSV Frankfurt, Las Palmas, Sivasspor and AEK Athens!

In the very short period of Sunday Oliseh's tenure, there are some encouraging signs from his selection policy and decisions, specifically his decision to set standards and his decisiveness in holding Lukman Haruna accountable for his disastrous performance in Tanzania. However, aspects of his selection decisions so far point unequivocally in the direction of the locust years of Stephen Keshi.

From the foregoing analysis, it seems crystal clear to me that to succeed, Sunday Oliseh must draw the majority of his national team call-ups from a viable core of established players in combination with high performers from the third and fourth selection pools outlined above. 

More importantly, it is vital that irrespective of the group a player is drawn from, that subsequent call-ups be made to reflect performance and accountability, not wishful thinking or worse, the desire to facilitate the international transfer of players.

Protecting the African Child, Patrice Sousia: Whose Interest FIFA?

I wrote a piece on FIFA's sanction of Barcelona's La Masia about a year and half ago, titled In the Best Interest of the African Child

In the piece I had wondered how much of the interests of the African child the rules on the international transfer of minors, FIFA's regulation actually protects:

It appears presumptuous and arrogant and puts FIFA in the unlikely position where it assumes to know better than Bukola Mosunmola and Ademola Adekanye, what is in the best interest of  their son Bobby Adekanye.
More importantly, it is ineffective because it doesn't address the two major mechanisms through which African minors are exploited in the transfer market, fraudulent agency representation and slave contracts, both of which continue, irrespective of the age of the player!
With specific reference to Barcelona, it is  rather ironic that a law that is designed to prevent the exploitation of minors, is punishing a team, whose facilities and conditions of work, as well as the management of young players is probably of the highest standard in the world.

But even I, skeptical as I was could never have foretold what would become of one of the young players, Patrice Sousia of Cameroon, who has suddenly found himself on the streets, homeless! This, as a result of FIFA's sanction, in not only preventing him from playing for Barcelona, in both friendlies and competitive games, but also in training, and wait for it, living at La Masia!

The result of the eviction was that Patrice Sousia suddenly found himself homeless and had to be rescued by the parents of one of his teammates.

So I ask again, whose interest is FIFA protecting in this sorry saga, because it sure as hell is not Patrice Sousia's?

Oliseh: Positive Early Signs, But Much Work Remains...

Sunny Oliseh begins his tenure as coach of the Super Eagles with a road draw against Tanzania, in a game in which the hosts had enough chances to feel disappointed with a point. Overall the Nigerian performance and team game was tepid and disappointing. The game by itself is culmination of the early first steps of Oliseh, and there are enough pointers from the overall performance to the extent of work that is required to rebuild the team to a competitive force on the global stage.

For all his commendable achievement in wining the Africa Nations Cup, Stephen Keshi's failure to build on this major achievement, left his successor with a team in far worse shape than he met it...

2. In my humble opinion, the failures of Nigerian coaches in the national team has often stemmed from poor management, especially with the failure to hold players accountable. It is in this regard that I was very enthused by Oliseh's selection policy, and I would encourage him to stick to it, making exceptions of course, but most appropriately.

3. Nigeria is a team that is at the moment lacking any truly world class outfield players. But what the country has is a cadre of young emerging professionals who, with thoughtful selection and creative tactics, can be a very effective team, with the qualities to be devastating on the counter.

4. Therefore for Oliseh to succeed, he must be willing to challenge existing order. Readers of this blog will recall my call to Siasia at the beginning of his tenure to make wholesale changes to rebuild the team, rather than cosmetic changes.

5. As I had urged Siasia back then, I would like to similarly urge Oliseh to continue to challenge established order, by holding players accountable. A critical part of this revolves around the role of Mikel Obi who was absent from this game. In my opinion, Oliseh must creatively challenge Mikel to live up to his talent and responsibilities to the team both through personal intervention and by developing viable competition for places in the team.

6. Getting back to the game, the critical technical issue behind the team's performance for me was in the structure of the midfield, featuring a double pivot of Obiorah and Izunna, a player I have consistently advocated for in the past.

7. It took the first Tanzanian attack to expose the deficiency in the Nigerian structure, with the Super Eagles consistently facing a 3v2 in central midfield, with Haruna exhibiting all of the worst traits associated with him since he first broke through at Monaco more than a decade ago. Oliseh must be commended for his swift decision in replacing him. 

But the lack of balance in the Nigerian midfield is by itself a reflection of the failures of Nigerian coaches, dating back to the locust years of Christian Chukwu.

8. Nigerian coaches must learn to evolve with their players. Ahmed Musa for all intents and purposes is no longer a winger but a forward, playing either wide or centrally, off the shoulder of the last defender

9. In the double pivot, the positioning of both Izunna and Obiorah was consistently too close, with both players naturally drifting to the same position, a reflection of their predominant roles as anchor in their various teams. In effect, Oliseh selected two similar players without sufficiently resolving the positional issues which was bound to emerge.

10. In my opinion, the Nigerian game at the Mkapa Stadium might have been better served with a switch to a 4-3-3, with two box-to-box players either side of Obiorah, a role the more versatile Izunna could've fulfilled. Instead, the imbalance in midfield was further reinforced by the introduction of Sylvester Igboun, a striker from his years at Danish club, Midjtylland.

11. Going forward, Oliseh must aggressively look for new, viable players in midfield, defence and attack. But this must signal the end of Haruna's international career! Anything less would directly question Oliseh's commitment to holding players accountable. In defence, the search for a genuine right back must continue, as well as commanding centerbacks.

12. The back to back games against Egypt will be decisive. With the expected return of Mikel and Onazi, some control and balance should return to central midfield. But a creative player at the top end of the midfield triangle is still lacking, which again suggests to me that a reconsideration of shape is necessary.

13. The clamor for new players especially Odion Ighalo will expectedly grow. I remain unconvinced by the player. In my opinion, he needs to be given the space to fully establish his game in the premiership. Although the European season is in its early stages, I think that Grenada's Isaac Success is at the moment better established to be given a look.

Sunny Oliseh as Super Eagles Coach: Not Nearly Enough...

1. The termination of Stephen Keshi's contract by the NFF culminated one of the worst examples of political interference and dysfunction to bedevil Nigerian football. It also marked the predictable, but still sad end to a tenure that began with the pleasant surprise of an ANC title, but ended with Keshi leaving the Nigerian national team in worse shape than he met it.
2. How a manager can take a country to the pinnacle of the African game, both as player and coach, yet sink to the morass that he did at the end, is by itself evidence of the chronic lack of professionalism that underlined much of Keshi's tenure, with decision making, both on and off the field that neither had science, evidence or reason behind it, except for endless whispers of pecuniary interests...
3. That Nigeria would rise to the pinnacle of the African game by winning the Nations Cup under him and yet fail to qualify in the very next, is stark proof of the lack of serious planning that underlined his tenure. It underlined a complete failure to build on the wonderful achievement of a Nations Cup title, and a huge missed opportunity, bringing Nigeria right back to where it was in 2010!
4. It is against this sad background that Sunny Oliseh takes the reigns of the Super Eagles, with the omens already decidedly against him! Why do I say this?
5. Because some of the major underlying factors that led to the failure of Stephen Keshi and the poor state of the Nigerian national team remain today, and worse have yet to be diagnosed, much less analyzed. The appointment of Oliseh thus comes, not as the fruit of systemic analysis, but the culmination of a protracted political struggle...
6. Let there be no misunderstanding. As an individual, I have every confidence in the strength of character of Oliseh. As a person, both on and off the field, he often cut a different picture from most of his peers, especially in terms of his professionalism and studious dedication to the game. But absent a concerted program to address the inherent weaknesses in our football, Oliseh can only take Nigeria to the extent to which he as a person can, by dint of personal hard work and perseverance, and dedication to the professionalism that has gotten him thus far.
7. The truth is that Nigeria is today victim to some of the underlying shifts in the global game, with the model of developing a national team through the European league, increasingly under threat.
8. Lacking a truly professional league, Nigeria is developing coaches by trial and error, depending on the individual strength of a new generation of coaches, without the requisite administrative support, and thus compromising their careers even before they got started!
9. Lacking a truly functional domestic game, Nigerian players are at the mercy of personal commercial interests, such as the kind that 'warehouses' the most talented domestic players in pseudo-academies for marketing purposes, rather than develop them through the rigors of a professional league.
10. The days that a corps of triumphant U-17 championship winning players can move straight from Nigeria to the cusp of the Ajax first team within a season are long over, as we can see from the struggles of our last squad. Something is deeply wrong with a Nigerian national team that can go to the mundiale with a fullback of such abysmally poor technical quality as Juwon Oshaniwa, and its not simply about selection...
11. While Stephen Keshi understood the effects of these shifts and sought to build the national team from the domestic base, his project was compromised almost from the very start, descending into the farce that his selections became in the end. Conversely, Amaju Pinnick's approach of building the national team from diaspora Nigerians is not based on a solid foundation. While diaspora Nigerians have a role to play in the Super Eagles, it can only serve as a gap-filler.
12. While I am impressed by the carte blanche remit that the NFF has given Oliseh to rebuild the national team, I am convinced that it is not nearly enough!
13. It is my considered opinion that the appointment of Oliseh should be followed immediately by the sacking of Shaibu Amodu as technical director and his replacement with someone who actually understands the role, is trained for it and does not interpret it to be a mere civil service job.
14. Alternatively, the NFF can replace him by repositioning the Okocha technical study group to play a professional role in rebuilding the Nigerian domestic game, rather than merely supervising the Super Eagles.

FIFA Scandal & Africa: An Opportunity Lost?

Colin Udoh's piece Africa, Blatter's Africa aptly summed upped the pathetic nature of football governance in Africa, and the bankruptcy of its leadership under Issa Hayatou.

With near deification of Blatter by the cabals that rule football associations in the continent, it is little wonder that Mr Blatter's hasty resignation has left many of them with eggs on their faces!

Shame!

Rather than sheepish followership, the FIFA corruption scandal presented Africa with an opportunity to forge new relationships and position the continent's football for a new era of global governance, one that is not built on a patronage system, and who can bow down the most!

The glee with which NFF President , Amaju Pinnick pledged undying loyalty to Blatter, was a sad spectacle!

With Blatter now gone, perhaps African football officials can themselves begin to think of a new era for African football, one without the corrupt leadership of Issa Hayatou.

While there are legitimate concerns in the continent about the desire of UEFA clubs and associations to inordinately impose their interests on the global game, this by itself cannot be an excuse for obsequious relationship between Africa and Blatter.

Moving forward, African football must seize the opportunity of a new wind to reform the continent's governance structure for football, and elect fresh and innovative leaders to drive the game.

A first step in this process must involve the departure of Issa Hayatou, and the abrogation of the electoral laws he and his co-conspirators, like Nigeria's Adamu, have imposed on CAF.

African football leaders must begin to forge new relationships, one best on enlightened regional, NOT self interest, especially with the Asian federation, and Oceania.

But the first step must begin with sanitization of CAF and the odious regime of Issa Hayatou!

Charting a New Direction for Nigerian Football: An Open Letter to Amaju Pinnick

Following the failure to qualify for the Nations Cup, Nigerian football is once again challenged to look seriously at its shortcomings and find new mechanisms to generate sustainable growth in the system. 

In response to this, new NFF Chairman Amaju Pinnick is looking to rebuild the Super Eagles by recruiting players of Nigerian parentage in the diaspora and has recently held meetings with Chuba Akpom, the young Arsenal prospect.

In this age of globalization and international migration, the nature of citizenship has changed. Indeed this is why I had in the past called for a football policy for the diaspora.

However, the need for such a policy does not, and cannot replace the hard job of rebuilding Nigerian football from the domestic game. True, there are many high quality footballers of Nigerian parentage in Europe. My team Liverpool has a host of them, including Jordon Ibe, Thiago Ilori, Ovie Ejara and the prodigious Sheyi Ojo.

But anyone who understands how young players emerge and are developed will tell you that there are no guarantees. The history of European youth academies is riddled with the carcass of the careers of once promising youth prospects who failed to make the grade after an initial flourish. To therefore base a substantial portion of rebuilding the national team on diaspora youth is at best a risky proposition. It is in this regard that I find Mr. Pinnick's approach to be highly flawed.

In my opinion, the Nigeria Goal project if faithfully implemented has the potential to fundamentally change the domestic game from the grassroots upwards.

Nigeria's approach to implementing this project has been unfortunately narrowly focused on developing the U-13 and U-15 teams with the primary purpose of feeding the U-17 teams. While this may have been successful in wining age grade competitions, it has had little or no impact on the broader Nigerian domestic game, as a similar program has had for Germany, Switzerland, Chile and Mexico. What is more, some of the technical weaknesses which bedevil talent development at the grassroots level remain, as we see with the current U-17 team.

As part of the Goal project, the then NFF had proposed to establish regional centers as a base for recruiting and training the best players in the various age groups. Before these centers were created, it was planned that coaches will be educated in preparation for their role as talent scouts. However, there was no indication in the plan how these coaches would be trained.

The weakness of this approach was obvious from the start. The truth is that the main promoters of grassroots youth football in Nigeria lie outside the NFF and state federations.

Grassroots football in Nigeria is alive and well by virtue of its non-reliance on government subsidies. There is however a glaring shortage of qualified coaches, equipment, including playing surfaces, and requisite programs for proper training and monitoring of youth footballers.

More importantly, there is a lack of coordination of programs and harmonization of training methodology to avoid a situation where academies exist merely to facilitate the sale of players abroad.

To simply construct regional centres does not begin to address the needs of this crucial sub-sector of Nigerian football.

1. First there is need to put in place, a structure within the NFF for collaborating with the youth leagues, associations and clubs that proliferate in such cities as Lagos, Kaduna, Port Harcourt, Aba, Benin, Warri, etc. An easy solution might be to adopt the organizational framework of the Pepsi Academy, and site the Regional Centers at their principal locations. It would then require that all other youth organizations be given the same access to these facilities and its resources. It is suggested as follows:

1. Establish a youth department at the NFF with requisite infrastructure
2. Mandate all grassroots associations and youth clubs to register with the department, AT NO COST; providing basic information on club and especially the bio-data of players, programs, etc. this will need to be phased, starting with Lagos and moving progressively to other cities.
3. Through consultation, synchronize the competition calendar of the grassroots leagues and clubs across the various regions and then nationally.

Thus, the primary goal of this department would be to serve as a coordinating body for youth football in Nigeria, streamlining calendars, facilitating the use of the Centers, providing coaches and other technical resources, and maintaining a database. The implication of this is that the actual implementation of the programs for youth football will remain with the promoters of grassroots football. This is crucial, as government intervention through the NFF will ultimately destroy this fledgling sub-sector of our football.

2. Establish the Goal Project’s national technical centre (NTC) as the primary institutional basis for the program. In my opinion, the Regional Centers can only be successful if a strong NTC is first put in place with requisite infrastructure. But more importantly, the NTC needs to be established as a training center for youth team coaches who can then be deployed to the regional centers to identify and train talented youths in their regions, and recommend the best prospects to the national level.

To build regional centers without addressing key programmatic issues in the youth sub-sector just does not cut it. In the end, such regional centers will join several other white elephant projects that have been abandoned and today litter the Nigerian landscape.

The Nigeria Goal Project needs to be restructured as a vehicle for sustainable development of youth football in Nigeria. More importantly, a program needs to be effectively put in place, involving the key drivers of the youth football sub-sector in Nigeria, so that the regional centers are able to truly address the needs for which they are created.

3. Thirdly, the NFF should seek the assistance of Chelsea's Director of Football, Mike Emenalo in the recruitment of a Technical Director to run this program. Such a coach should be one that is experienced in developmental programs of this nature, The recommendation is made because there are not too many Nigerians with the depth of knowledge and experience to creatively develop and manage such a program.

4. With the Technical Director in place, and in consultation with the youth clubs, streamline and adopt a synchronized framework to guide the training and development of young players by all youth clubs and age grade national teams, but with enough flexibility for innovative ideas to grow.

5. Develop a system of incentives and support services for the clubs, including playing kits. The Adidas contract should have a provision through which to fund this, and indeed other aspects of this programme. If one does not exist, then requisite sponsorship for such should be developed.

6. In addition to this, the NFF should invoke the relevant section of the CAF ‘Contract with Africa’ and develop a funding proposal to CAF to finance the administration of this program.

7. The Technical Director should, in addition to his primary responsibilities, also provide technical assistance to the senior national team, and assume a back-room advisory role during such tournaments as the Africa Nations Cup and the World Cup. This way, the direct day to day management of the national team is left with a local coach who is made to grow with the team.

8. But more importantly, this initiative requires that Nigeria invest in a new generation of coaches, with emphasis on players with experience of European football as well as others with demonstrated ambition to excel in the profession. However for each of these ex-footballers, a minimum qualification should be the CAF or UEFA license, which can be secured even while on the job, but subject to a specified deadline. The CAF ‘Contract with Africa’ and its coaching program offers the best prospects for enhancing the capability of coaches already involved in youth football, and streamlining youth coaching under this program.

9. Changes in the management of football, including the transfer system resulting from the Bosman ruling in Europe has made the entry level into the European league much more difficult than a few years ago. The availability of quality players from Eastern Europe has further restricted the availability of places for African players. The result is that too many of our talented players are forced to remain in the lower leagues of Europe in such places as Malta, Albania, Latvia, Cyprus, with many ultimately lost to the game.

10. While the availability of quality players based in top European teams will remain important in the foreseeable future, the long term future of Nigerian football lies more in developing the domestic game, especially at the youth level, than in the academies of Liverpool, Arsenal or Barcelona's La Masia.

Who Wins AFCON 2015?

The Nations Cup begins this weekend with a slightly less open field and competition as the 2013 edition. It also begins without African powers Nigeria and Egypt, the former from a failure to build on its surprise success in 2013, and the latter from weaknesses that transcend the management of its domestic game.

2. As is often the case in recent tournaments, the seeding system by CAF has conspired to reward too much of the status quo rather than form and progressive development. The result is a truncated distribution of teams that unfortunately lumps Ghana, Senegal, Algeria and South Africa in one group, and a Zambian team that has been living on the dregs and leftovers of its 2012 success is rewarded with a seed.

3. As the competition gets set to begin, two key off-field issues will be significant, the quality of the playing surface and the weather. In 2012, the image of some "water polo" contests in Gabon remains seared in the mind, as was the cattle grazing fields in South Africa a year later...

4. In my opinion Cameroon starts out as the favorites to win this tournament. Readers of this blog will recall that I first called attention to the early signs of a Cameroonian revival two years ago. Readers will also recall my criticism of Volke Finke for the slow pace of his transition from the Eto'o generation of players. Today the rewards of a forward looking selection policy is self evident, a fact that I suspect will be further reinforced by the recent retirement of Song from the team.

5. My position on Cameroon is based on two things: an improved team spirit and strength in defence, with a team that is competitive in both the passing game in open play, as well as the counterattack. A formula that will get you success any day of the week in African football. I especially look forward to seeing Edgar Salli, Clinton N'jie and the young Franck Bagnack, should he get to play. But I remain unconvinced by Choupo Moting, even while recognizing his work rate.

6. The current Ivorien team has remained steadily at the top echelon of African football since 2008, but with nothing to show for it by way of titles, except the perennial tag of favorites. They come into the tournament again with probably the most complete and experienced squad, but a lingering malaise that successive coaches have been unable to eradicate. With two of the best players in Africa today in Yaya Toure and Wilfred Bony, there is clear evidence of a lack of reinvention in defence especially. Thankfully Sol Bamba and Zokora have been finally replaced, but the sense remains that it's been too late coming. The young Espanyol centerback Eric Bailly is an interesting prospect, and his round-house physical approach should find fertile ground in African football! Nonetheless, this team should be in contention, especially with the African experience and motivational skills of Herve Renard, even if not altogether his attention to tactical details.

7. Algeria arrive at the tournament with clearly the best team in the continent over the last one and half years. A very balanced squad in both personnel and systems, its pace from midfield and the defensive platform provided by Bentaleb and Medhi from midfield, enables the team fully exploit the pace of Brahimi, Djabou and Feghouli in attack. Although the current form of the latter is a little concerning. Of all the top teams in the tournament, the condition of the playing surface is likely to affect Algeria the most, because of the nature of its attacking game and transitions.

8. Ghana remain a powerful force that should content for the title, but there is an unmistakeable sense that this is a team in decline, a situation further compounded by bizarre decisions on coaching changes since the exit of the Serbian Milovan Rajevac. The injury and absence of Mojeed Warris will hurt the team, as will the lack of regular playing time by key players, especially in midfield. In defence the team is a little light in terms of depth. The addition of Augsburg's Baba Rahman is a welcome change. Overall there is not enough quality young players coming through in the team. In attack Mahatma Otoo should be an interesting player to watch especially with the fitness doubts surrounding Gyan. What he lacks in technique, he more than makes up in his fighting spirit...

9. Among the outsiders in this tournament, I suspect one of South Africa, Tunisia and Senegal could possibly be one of the teams to watch. In my opinion, given its football infrastructure and organization, South Africa has often underachieved in the continent, largely from a lack of self belief. But Shakes Mashaba's team has grown consistently in confidence, underlined by its performance over the last one year, and could spring a surprise.

10. Finally I look forward to watching the continued development of Cape Verde, with its attention to the fundamentals of the team game, and especially with its organization in defence.

11. Among the young players to watch are Ghana's Baba Rahman, Cameroon's Clinto N'jie, DR Congo's centerback Chancel Mbemba, and Congo's Thievy Bifouma.