Africa Nations Cup: Random Musings on Day 1 Games

1. The two hosts, Equatorial Guinea and Gabon began with wins. This can only bode well for the tournament as it ensures interest of the fans, at least in the games involving the home teams. Of the two hosts, Gabon is obviously the stronger side and Morocco's opening day loss means they have one foot already in the second round.

2. But in defeating Niger 2-0, familiar weaknesses exist in defensive coverage in midfield, with runners behind the central midfielders often untracked. On the offensive, Niger's abundant generosity in the time and space it afforded Gabon could have and should have been punished more severely. But these are early days and a stiffer test will come in the next two games.

3. Unlike many, Zambia's triumph over Senegal came as no surprise. They are a more cohesive team and have played together longer. Senegal on the other hand is a young team with some very talented young players, especially in attack. But the quality of the team declines as you move backwards through midfield to the defence. However, surprising for me was evidence of continued mental weaknesses about this Zambian team, which nearly gifted Senegal a way back in the game, even with numerous opportunities that the game offered the East Africans on the counterattack.

4. In Group B, the Ivoriens towered over their nearest rivals without being convincing. With a game based on the 4-3-3 formation, and the dominant controlled possession in midfield, the decision on the use of Yaya Toure denied the team the Man City players decisive powerful surges from midfield., which in turn impacted the play in wide areas and the options off the ball that both Gervinho and  Kalou had. In addition, weaknesses in the defensive organization presented opportunities for Sudan on the counter. A stronger team will be less forgiving...

As I stated earlier, the performance of Gervinho and Kalou in their roles as wide forwards, will go a long way in determining how far this team goes.

5. The most dissapointing team in this round of games has to be Morocco. They had the game, the setup and the talent to beat Tunisia. Not only did they fail to do that, but they showed familiar weaknesses in previous Nations Cup flops, at every level of the game and department of the team. If there is any positive from their performance, it has to be the fact they created chances. The draws mean they face the strongest teams in the group in their first two games, meaning they must win their remaining matches. I believe they have the game to beat Gabon, but I doubt they have the self belief...

6. The Black Stars of Ghana proved to be the outstanding performers in the opening games, with a dominant controlled possession game in midfield and an imperious John Mensah in the heart of defence. While stiffer tests will come than the defensive minded Botswana, the Ghanaians know how they want to play, how to support each other, and have the professionalism and experience to overcome adversity, as they showed following Mensah's deserved dismissal.

While the Ayew brothers were a bit quiet, you get the distinct sense they have a few gears in reserve. But Muntari continues to dissapoint in his execution of his tactical role in midfield, behind Asamoah Gyan.

A Wide Open Africa Nations Cup...

I have often said that when African players return to play for their national teams, they often leave behind their professionalism in Europe. The result is that the African Nations Cup (ANC) typically runs high on emotion and spontaneity but less on tactical organization and discipline. The ANC has often favored the teams built with emphasis on defensive organization, tactical balance and some cutting edge in attack. Nigeria and Cameroon in 1988, Nigeria in 1990 (reaching the finals with an inexperienced team), Cote d‘Ivoire (CIV) in 1992, South Africa in 1996 and ’98, Cameroon in 2000 and 2002, Tunisia in 2004, Egypt in 2008, Egypt and a young Ghana team in 2010…

This edition begins in Gabon and Equatorial Guinea as the most wide open field since a Nigerian team withdrew as overwhelming favorites on the eve of the competition in 1996.

Without Egypt, Cameroon, Nigeria and South Africa, the elite African teams in the competition are CIV and Ghana, with the likes of Morocco, Tunisia and Senegal at various stages in the maturity of their young teams.

With two 3rd tier teams, Gabon and Equatorial Guinea as hosts; are such minnows as Niger, Botswana, Libya and Sudan as well as perennial underachievers Mali, Zambia and a washed out Angola. At the same time, the nature of the first round groups means that one of CIV, Angola, or Burkina Faso, will not be in the quarter final rounds, as is one of the trio of Ghana, Mali and Guinea, as well as Gabon, Morocco or Tunisia. 

This will not rank as one of the classic Nations Cup tournaments.  

Many have pointed to the presence of such minnows as Niger, Botswana, Libya and Sudan as evidence of the progress of African football. The familiar cliché is that there are no more minnows in African football. I could not disagree more! 

The ANC has always had a presence of minnows albeit to varying degrees. The 1996 tournament for instance featured Sierra Leone, Liberia, Gabon, Mozambique and Burkina Faso. The 1984 tournament in the old eight team format featured Malawi. In 1978 an unheralded Uganda team reached the finals only to be easily beaten by Ghana. They have not been heard of since...

In my opinion the absence of several top tier teams in the tournament, with the exception of Egypt, is symptomatic of the malaise in Africa where teams grow without developing football through the domestic game. Even accounting for the disruptive influence of the departure of top players to Europe, the absence of sustainable structures often results in a landscape dominated by short cycles of boom and stagnation, corresponding with the ability of players to break through at top European clubs.

Worse still, the foundations for development of youth football are often subverted by the myopic focus on winning youth tournaments rather than developing youth football. Sustainable progress in African football cannot be based solely on the ability of African players to win contracts and breakthrough at top European teams. In Nigeria for instance, virtually the entire structure for the development of football is at a complete standstill as a result of administrative ineptitude and corruption.

Progress in African football is not measured by random movements at the bottom of the pyramid, but developments at the top...
 

And supervising over this sad state of affairs remains Issa Hayatou, CAF President since 1987, and whose secretariat somehow managed to put together the most confusing qualification series ever organized in the history of the global game! The BBC Sports page, on the final weekend of qualifying games, was ample proof of Africa's embarassment laid bare  (Link). The puzzle that was the ANC qualifiers included the nullification of duly played matches as if they never happened, with no refunds to thousands of fans, many paying gate fees from hard earned money.

How long must Africa put up with Issa Hayatou?

At the 2012 ANC, two teams, CIV and Ghana stand out as overwhelming favorites. The Ivoriens have been favorites since this generation of top players emerged simultaneously in 2006. But since then, the team has repeatedly failed to meet expectations and has won nothing in a span of 3 ANC competitions. 

The result is that six years on, key players such as Drogba, Kolo Toure and Zokora have lost a few steps. On the other hand though, Yaya Toure is probably at the top of his career with Man City; ditto for Cheick Tiote at Newcastle, while Seydou Doumbia is having an impressive season in attack at CSKA Moscow. The Ivoriens will start the tournament with the best central midfield duo in the competition in Yaya and Tiote. Although lacking pace in defence, there should be enough cover from midfield to protect the backline. The decisive issue for CIV will likely be the performance of Gervinho and Kalou as wide forwards in a 4-3-3 formation.

On the other hand Ghana’s return to the apex of African football has been based in large part to stability, both in playing philosophy (even with changes in coaches) and the ability to constantly rejuvenate the team with young talent. 

In a direct head to head comparison, CIV have the advantage in quality of playing personnel, but Ghana has the stronger unit, both in terms of overall tactical organization and team spirit. Lacking an explosive attacking game, the success of the team in recent years has been based on strong defensive organization, especially in midfield and the ability to break quickly in attack. At the World Cup in South Africa, Kevin Prince Boateng best embodied these qualities. His inexplicable retirement from international football, coupled with the poor form of Sulley Muntari will leave the team a little short on the creative side. In attack a considerable factor in Ghana’s ability to win the tournament will depend on the form of the Ayew brothers, especially Andre Ayew, coming from wide positions to support Gyan (if fit) in attack. 

Should both teams meet in the finals, my vote would be on the Ivoriens.

Outside of these two teams, I expect strong performances from Morocco, Gabon and Senegal who have rebuilt their team with an array of young players, especially in attack. But weaknesses exist in its defensive organization and the quality of players in defence. 

If the Moroccans start well in their opening game, I expect them to be one of the surprise teams of the tournament, playing with a tightly balanced team that is able to identify its best moment to attack. Eric Gerets focus on physical condition and tight defensive organization are two things that often find favor with the ANC, especially with the talent in midfield with the likes of Boussoufa, Kharja and Taarabt (if he rediscovers his apettite for the national team).

Of the two hosts, only Gabon has the ability to turn the home field into an advantage. They had come quite close to springing a suprise in the last world cup qualifiers, eventually losing steam when Cameroon finally found a second gear. What they lack in quality will be more than made up by the team spirit.