The State of African Football

1. The Nations Cup has come to a fairytale end with the triumph of Zambia and its march to the tune of destiny. Congratulations to Zambia on a deserved victory...Its conclusion in many ways defines the state of African football, in a manner that allows us to look at its immediate future. But I do suspect that the 2013 Nations Cup will be more definitive in its conclusions than this one...
2. The qualification and performance of such teams as Niger, Sudan, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, etc has also been heralded as the dawn of a new era of progress in African football, a claim I have sought to disprove here. 
3. However the pattern that has continued since Egypt's three consecutive titles is the influence of the proximity and availability of players on team spirit and chemistry, and the impact that has had on success, in sharp contrast to countries that have the difficult task of building teams through the limited crack of the FIFA international games window.
4. The defining factor behind this changing dynamic in my opinion has been the influence of the African Nations Championship (CHAN), which began in 2009 and exclusively limited to players from their respective domestic championships and qualified to play in the ongoing season. The competition, along with the CAF Champions League, has allowed several countries, especially but not limited to the lower tier teams such as Sudan, Niger, Libya, but also Tunisia and Zambia etc, a chance to build their national teams from home, and use the Euro-based players to supplement.
5. Winning the 2011 CHAN was the decisive factor in Tunisia presenting a vastly improved team at the ANC, as is the case with Gabon, Sudan and Niger. But it has also impacted the ability of top tier countries like Ghana and Zambia to replenish their teams, and I suspect will help Congo DR rebound in the future.
6. The abiding lesson of Egypt's trifecta of ANC titles, Zambia's triumph and the performances of Sudan, Niger, Libya and Tunisia is the importance of a viable domestic game as the foundation for the national team, irrespective of the number of players in Europe, and how many feature for the likes of Barcelona, Madrid, Bayern or Chelsea...
7. Zambia's unlikely triumph is evidence most of all of a superior team spirit, even if the talent was not always superior...For many in this team, this will have to be the last hurray and Zambia will have to begin the difficult road of transition.
8. The failure of CIV to win the ANC is evidence of a road not taken. It is testimony to a coaching decision to play in a manner that was as constraining as it was tentative. And especially against Zambia, it was evidence of a deliberate decision to tailor tactics, not to one's strengths, but that of the opponent. It was reactive rather than proactive....In the end the sight of a vastly superior Ivorien team with the likes of Yaya Toure, Tiote and Zokora unable to even control the game in midfield, and cowering instead into a deep defensive line, was the worst case of cowardice I've seen since a Berti Vogts led Nigerian team went into a defensive shell after Ghana had John Mensah sent off in the 2008 ANC quarter finals.
9. The result is that this generation of Ivoriens have still not won anything nearly a decade since emerging on the continental scene. Going forward, the Ivoriens must prioritize the rebuilding of badly damaged morale from the loss to Zambia. This would begin with securing the commitment of Yaya Toure who is making small noises about retiring from international football. But the good news is the Ivoriens have a reservoir of talent to seamlessly replace the likes of Zokora, Drogba and Kolo Toure.
10. The Black Stars came to the ANC with a swagger and left with a whimper! A bold prediction by coach Goran Stevanovic would ironically feed into a mindset of entitlement and overconfidence, and a team lacking cutting edge in the last third from the first game, would paper over cracks from a combination of weak opposition and good fortune until luck deserted them against Zambia, and they neither had the bench nor a Plan B to mount a credible fight back.
11. Whatever his explanation might be, especially reading through his technical report, Stevanovic must take responsibility for the lack of creativity in this Black Stars team, especially from a midfield with more destructive than creative players. Whats more, his use of Andre Ayew in the tournament lacked imagination.
12. Looking forward, Ghana will continue to benefit from the stability in management of the team and evolution of playing personnel. However, players like Muntari, John Mensah, Asamoah Gyan, Pantsil, Vorsah and Tagoe need to be replaced, and a credible right back identified. Vital too should be securing the return to international football of Kevin Prince Boateng, as well as creating a pathway for emerging young players like  the Parlemo and Fiorentina midfielders, Afriyie Acquah and Maxwell Acosty to get a look in. The lack of creativity in the final third was critical to the failure of this team.
13. Among the teams that failed to qualify for the ANC, the case of Nigeria and Cameroon remains especially dire. The reasons behind the failures of both countries have been long in coming and draw substantially from administrative failures in the management of football, including poor hiring decisions as well as coaching failures. These administrative failures remain and in the case of Nigeria may be getting worse.
14. The legal issues surrounding the name of the NFF is being addressed by the National Assembly. But the governance problems remain, unless you are like FIFA willing to stick your head in the sand and pretend that government interference is simply about who controls the FA board and its election, even when such a board is almost entirely funded by government, its staff civil servants, and its legal existence based on an act of congress!
15. But the core of a competitive team still remains. It is against this background that coach Stephen Keshi is implementing a bold approach to rebuilding the Super Eagles from the domestic game outwards (Link). Such an approach has the potential to vastly expand the options available to him, both in personnel and the tactical organization of the team. 
16. The uncertain political climate in Egypt was always going to impact its football, but the recent violence has simply made a bad situation worse. Three successive ANC titles and failure to qualify for the world cup in South Africa meant that an era in Egyptian football had come to an end. But the potential for developing a viable new team is very strong, especially against the performance of the U-20 team in Colombia and more recently the U-23 team.
17. Of the three North African powers, Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia, the latter appears best positioned for the future, having presented a well balanced team at the ANC. After a dominating first half performance against Ghana in the quarter-finals, old habits would die hard and the familiar cynical tactics promptly returned in the second period of the game. The biggest challenge for the future would be replacing Karim Haggui at center back in the next few years. The future looks bright for Tunisia.
18. With another ANC scheduled in 2013, I expect the current trend of competitiveness to continue but with diminishing likelihood of upsets, and the return of more familiar faces to the competition.