The Zambians ride an emotional wave all the way to Libreville for the final game of the Nations Cup! What a story it will be if the win it all...
Congratulations to Felix Katongo and his teammates, and also to Herve Renard for guiding them through pre-tournament favorites like Senegal and Ghana. Many European coaches who work in Africa, inevitably simply pass through like tourists, observing from a distance but never assimilating the local culture. Herve Renard has done brilliantly well to channel the emotions of this team in a manner to draw inspiration from the huge tragedy of the loss of the Zambian team in that unfortunate air crash on April 26, 1993.
After the loss to Nigeria two years ago, Renard has reshaped his side into a more conservative and streetwise team, playing on the counterattack, based on a hardworking rather than a typically flambouyant midfield, as we have come to so often associate with Zambia.
Facing a superior but one dimensional opponent in Ghana, Renard's use of the versatile TP Mazembe defender, Francis Kasondo in a deep defensive position in midfield helped limit the Black Stars control of the zone in front of the defence, and constrain Asamoah Gyan's ability to win the second ball. They would ride their luck, extremely, but the Ghanaian challenge would soon petered out in the face of Zambian energy, and on the back of overconfidence, injuries and limited tactical and personnel options.
Zambia play a nominal 4-4-2 formation but with Katongo often dropping into midfield to serve as the link to the attack especially in the penultimate phase of the counterattack. His game so far has been energetic even if occassionally indisciplined.
Much of the success of this team so far has come from the powerful central midfield duo of Chisamba Lungu and Nathan Sinkala. But the team is at its most threatening form with Rainford Kalaba on the ball wide on the left. Brilliant going forward, his lack of effective support for his fullback can be a liability. Against the Ivoriens, his defensive contribution would become a significant issue if Musonda at left back is allowed to be isolated with Gervinho and Gosso overlapping from right back.
Against the Ivoriens, I expect both Lungu and Sinkala to come under pressure and would have to play quickly, without dwelling in possession or forced into merely kicking the ball downfield.
The Ivoriens have so far conducted this campaign methodically and with great discipline in a predominantly 4-3-3 formation, playing well within themselves in the first stage and slowly expanding their domination of the opponent from the quarter final stage, but without resort to the expansive game of previous tournaments.
Against Zambia, I expect the Ivoriens to dominate in midfield, both numerically and tactically, and especially with territorial control to deny the East Africans opportunities on the counter.
I expect the Ivoriens to press hard and high upfield to minimize both time and space on the ball, especially on Lungu and Sinkala, who are both susceptible to pressure.
In this regard, Didier Zokora's performance in the middle of a midfield trio will be crucial in reading the game and covering undefended zones as the team presses the ball, as well as denying Katongo space in the zone in front of the defence.
The key matchups to look for will be between Gervinho and Musonda, and between Kalaba and Gosso; also between Drogba and Sunzu as well as Zokora and Katongo.
On the whole, the Zambian team has defended with great athleticism and resoluteness without ever needing any complex tactical organization, a quality best exemplified by Stophira Sunzu at right centerback. However they show great vulnerability in defending the zone on the inside of the fullbacks. But I get the distinct sense that in Ivory Coast they will be faced with much more than they can handle.
But what a story it will be if the Zambians triumph in Libreville... And whether they win or not, they'll walk in the shadow of giants before them and in the background the the collective spirit of:
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