Nigeria Begins a Post World Cup Era with Seychelles

Nigeria's match against Seychelles marked the beginning of the second half of the Gernot Rohr era, following a largely unremarkable world cup, defined more by what could've been.

Readers of my blog might have noticed that I am yet to pen a review of Nigeria's world cup performance. This is largely the result of the fact that in my opinion, the key issues in the overall performance reflect long term problems that relate more to Pinnick and his leadership of the NFF, than Gernot Rohr, and would need to be addressed separately.

The reality is that the production of talent, both in terms of quality and numbers has stalled badly in Nigeria, and this relates to issues in the organization of the domestic game, both at the technical and the management level. The Nigerian domestic game has proven to be incapable of developing players of international calibre, a situation that has existed since the early 2000s, with no serious attempt at resolution. Perhaps nothing underlined this sad state of affairs than the use of goalkeeper Francis Uzoho, from the youth side of a relegated La Liga side.

In addition the Nigerian clubs as currently constituted, are completely lacking a professional environment in which players can develop to be high level international footballers. This is the remit of Amaju Pinnick and the NFF. And until this is seriously addressed, Nigeria will continue to rely on individual players breaking through from all shades and tiers of European football.

Like it was at the World Cup, the result against Seychelles was as expected as it was unremarkable, and underlines the fact that Rohr's cautious approach is set to continue.

Nigeria largely controlled a game of poor quality and few remarkable moments rather easily, and on a pitch that once again underlines the lack of appreciation of the value of a good playing field by African football associations...

On the technical side, the game also highlighted CONTINUING issues on the personnel side that need to be addressed, if Nigeria must return to the pinnacle of the African game and rise above the muddle and mediocrity in the continent at the moment.

Attack:
In attack, the continued reliance on Odion Ighalo, while understandable in the short term, remains an issue in need of greater effort and urgency at resolution by the coach. Thus far, Rohr's approach has been to keep faith in the player, expecting that his hard work and experience will come through. In fairness to the coach, there are few, if any genuine alternatives. What we have instead are either unproven players or players with questionable potentials, often performing at low levels, with little consistency, and that would require patience and gradual introduction.

But this is not to say that Rohr is entirely blameless. He has more options than he has used consistently, as a result of his over reliance on the big burly striker, who can hold up the ball. Thus far, he has chosen to bring the wide players closer to Ighalo in the final third. But he has also not returned to the use of Musa in a central attacking role as he did successfully against Argentina in Russia, which could potentially open up space for greater use of the likes of Onyekuru....

There is also the continued lack of cutting edge in the final third, in large part from a reluctance to deploy midfield runners as arrivals in the penalty area, a quality quite evident in Ndidi and Joel Obi.

What is abundantly clear however is that Odion Ighalo is not an international level striker and continued reliance on him is foolhardy. Both the NFF and Rohr can do better in developing more capable options. In my opinion, the Liverpool striker Dominic Solanke is a very viable option that needs to be explored, his lack of first team action notwithstanding.

Midfield:
In midfield, Mikel Obi's continued presence is not assured and his international career is surely coming to an end. In a deeper role, his presence will not be missed as Ndidi is a very capable and assured replacement.

The challenge is in the roles on either side of Ndidi, in a 4-3-3 or besides him in a 4-2-3-1. The world cup clearly underlined some of the qualities of Etebo in central midfield, as well as his deficiencies. In addition, there are continued questions about the #10 role, which was filled today by Kelechi in a thoroughly unconvincing fashion.

Rohr needs to develop more options in central midfield, and he needs to do this in a forward looking manner, not by reliance on rethreads like John Ogu. It would require that we take more risks, especially through high level friendlies, as well as expand our scouting network.

Defence:
In defence, we need to develop better options in fullback positions, to enable Rohr return to his favored back four, and extend our overall qualities in wide areas.

There is also the need to develop more options in central defence. This would enable the team transition away from continued use of Omeruo, whose career has steadily declined since the heights of the AFCON triumph. His technical qualities on the ball, positional awareness and tactical discipline are lacking, as shown by the map below (#22) from the Argentine first goal, a situation that was not much improved today, even against a hapless Seychelles.

Gernot Rohr and Nigeria's rationale of its world cup performance was based on the age and lack of experience of the Super Eagles. That rationale cannot be justified in the AFCON qualifiers or in the ensuing tournament. Nigeria must show real and tangible progress in the 2019 AFCON tournament in Cameroon.

Nigeria's World Cup Final...

In my considered opinion, Nigeria's world cup will come down to Kaliningrad on June 16. For me, given the schedule of games, the loser goes home; period....

The biggest tactical question Nigeria will face in this game in particular and in the world cup in general, will be how to play within limited space and time.

Nigeria's world cup will be defined by possession. But not in absolute numbers, rather the efficiency of possession, when she has the ball, and the organization in the non-possession phase when/if the opponent has controlled possession.

This is why I see an almighty 'gunfight' in central midfield at the Arena Baltika, and everybody better come with their weapons, fully loaded, with intent to execute, with neither malice nor charity, and no prisoners taken!!!

There's a quiet confidence within the Croatian camp that it would be a big mistake for Nigeria to high press in midfield, and that with elite midfielders in Modric, Rakitic, Brozovic and Kovacic, they possess the experience and craft to easily play through the first line of Nigerian high press by slowing the tempo and 'boxing' the Super Eagles, before switching to undefended zones and then unbalance Nigeria in defence, with quick through balls behind the fullbacks, or in the space on either side of central defence.

All available evidence points to the ability of the Nigerian first press to reach its mark, given the athleticism of the key central midfielders. Whether this can be accomplished without resort to card inducing fouls, is an open question, as we say in that friendly Croatia vs Senegal. However the first press is not my main concern. My concern is the second ball and the limited options around that ball in the attacking phase.

And why is this a concern? One word- the counter press! The limitation in options will increase the likelihood of success of the counter press, and this Nigerian team is not as yet well organized in this phase, although much better organized than Croatia faced against Senegal. There remains a critical lack of communication across the lines dividing the defined roles, with certain units not pushing up, or back in tandem.

Take the annoying friendly against England, which allowed Southgate fulfill all his tactical wet dreams..Kane's movement, like the gyrations of an experienced lap-dancer, would repeatedly draw Ekong out, with no corresponding defensive movement from midfield, leaving the Nigerian central defense wide open...

My second concern is what happens when the opponent inevitably raises the tempo and attempts to play through the Nigerian midfield at pace, having used possession to tire out the Nigerian central midfielders.

Offensively, the Nigerian attacking game appears to be at its most productive when the opponent is isolated in space. In the counterattacking phase, this Nigerian team will primarily beat you with pace and the dribble in open play. There needs to be more. There needs to be greater work on ball possession.

The first friendly against Poland gave a few glimpses of some of Nigeria's characteristics; the second was a complete wash, a nothing burger...For full disclosure, I am not a fan of pre-World Cup friendlies. For the most part, they show nothing and prove little. It leaves both players and managers in a no-win situation, and even the limited set of objectives that managers plan for, are never worth the price of tournament ending injuries....

However as I stated earlier, this is a different kind of Nigerian team, and Super Eagles fans are well advised to discard expectations of a typical Nigerian flamboyance. This is a team that is being built on organization, resilience and efficiency on the counter. Whether they can achieve this is an open question.

In Rohr, the team has a thoroughly understated, conservative and average manager, but one who is well aware of the strengths and limitations of his team.

The key question is, given everything said, can this Nigeria team beat Croatia? The simple answer is that given the vulnerabilities in the Croatian defense, Nigeria will get opportunities and can beat the Croats. But there is little doubt in my mind that Croatia will start with some clear advantages over Nigeria in both playing personnel and team structures. Overall a lot for Nigeria will depend on how well Rohr calibrates his tactics and the maximum concentration of the players.

In my opinion, it would be a mistake for Nigeria to implement a full-court high-press against Croatia. Instead, it must be situational, and the team must find the right moments to press and the right balance between the high press and a low/medium block. And with the blistering pace upfront and vertical threats like Musa, either out wide or centrally, the team can retain an attacking threat even while sitting deep.

Whatever happens, this could be a new phase in Nigerian national team football, both in terms of the players and the team tactics.

Nigeria's JMO-Sized Tactical Conundrum

On August 4 2016 at the Amazonia Arena in the sultry heat of Manaus, Brazil, Nigeria first unveiled a new tactical formation under Samson Siasia, in a wild game of Olympics football, which ended 5-4 in her favor, against Japan.

Contrary to what had become an established role at the heart of central midfield, Siasia would field John Mikel Obi (JMO) higher upfield, behind Sadiq Umar, the central striker, but in front of the two central midfielders, Azubuike and Muhammed.

Not much has been said by subsequent Nigerian managers, including Gernot Rohr on this new role definition, except a statement credited to Siasia that this was Mikel's preferred role.

In this role, going by Rohr's definition so far, Mikel becomes the outlet for hold-up play, higher up the pitch, building on one of his greatest strengths, the ability to retain the ball technically, without 'leftovers', and allow Nigeria transition to the final third with tranquility.

Since assuming the role of  manager, Gernot Rohr has steadily installed a counterattacking regime in the Super Eagles, using the pace in wide areas for the breakaway from deep. In this new role therefore, Mikel offers an outlet for the deep ball (or knock down from the central striker), especially in the face of a high press.

When executed well, it has seen Nigeria develop play with much greater efficiency and arrive in the final third with stability and assurance. It has also increased Mikel's goals and assist rate for the national team.

The problem for Nigeria is that for much of his career outside youth football, Mikel has always received the ball to feet in the first stage of the build up play. Under Mourinho and subsequent Chelsea managers, the spacing of players enabled Mikel and his team move the ball quickly with a regime of short horizontal passes, to both evade the press as well as transition to the next attacking phase.

Higher upfield when Nigeria use the outlet ball to Mikel, his skills and experience from Chelsea affect the speed of the counter. Even with his superb close control, the game at this stage would often require him to turn upfield, which he executes under regulation speed limits in a well heeled residential neighborhood...

What is more, Nigeria play a running game, with a long history of players adept at running at a defence, with speed and great individual technique. The tempo of the Nigerian game drops on the occasion that this is required of Mikel.

These combine to make Mikel highly susceptible to the press in this role and would require that the team develop options around the ball to exploit the space that would emerge when the opponent executes this. Rohr could also drop Mikel deeper in central midfield as he has sometimes done...

Whichever way this goes, this will be an interesting issue to watch in the mundiale, especially given the conservative nature of the Nigerian manager...

First Thoughts on Nigeria at the World Cup...

A young Nigerian team became the first country to qualify for the World Cup from the African confederation, built on strong internal cohesion, a vibrant team spirit, and great athleticism.

Compared to previous versions, this is a very different Super Eagles team. The universal attention to nutrition and conditioning will mean that this is a world cup in which the gaps between teams will come from mentality and superior technique. Nigeria's athleticism will be a very important factor if well harnessed.

Going into the world cup, my main concerns for this team lie in the stagnation of key players. Mikel Obi is in China, Ogenyi Onazi is in Turkey, Kelechi Iheanacho is struggling to rekindle his young career at Leicester, and Alex Iwobi is caught up in the stasis at Arsenal.

Tactically, not many of the players  have grown in the last season, but at the same time, it would be a mistake to reach hard conclusions about Nigerian players in the national team, solely on the basis of club performance, as a different dynamic obtains at this level, as we saw years ago with Samson Siasia, then at Nantes.

Given this background, it is understandable the approach adopted by Gernot Rohr, and no game captures this as best as the decisive game against Zambia in Uyo. This version of the Nigeria Super Eagles is being built to learn to 'suffer', be comfortable in it, and then take its opportunities. There is thus certainty in the way the team wants to play, where a team like Argentina, is still looking...

Tactically, there are two major areas of concern:

First is the ability to keep possession higher upfield, without an over reliance on the individual qualities of Mikel Obi in an advanced role. Individually, the players have the technical quality, but as a team, this is lacking, and I think, more as a consequence of coaching decisions. In Russia, I expect teams will look first to take away the option that Mikel presents for keeping possession high upfield.

In the mundiale, it is hard to see Nigeria effectively control a game from a defensive position, while simply booting the ball upfield as they did against Poland.

The second concern is the organization of the team behind the line of press. This is the first manager to harness the natural athleticism of Nigerian players in a high pressing game, without the need to commit multiple players or to significantly advance the defensive line. Of course this is not the first time Nigeria has used a pressing system (the late Keshi's team did in some games), but none of Nigeria's previous managers had players with the qualities of this team, especially Ndidi in central midfield.

The problem here is that without increasing the share of possession in the game, the team is often playing in one tempo, and as was the case in the second half in Worclaw, gaps will begin to appear in midfield as players start to tire, and the opponent plays faster through midfield as the Poles did in the second half last night.

In Russia, tactically, I expect Nigeria's approach to face its stiffest examination against Croatia, largely because of the different characteristics of the Croats, and their ability to suddenly transition to attack even from deep. But watching the performance last night, Nigeria can overcome in what will similarly be a 'trench warfare' in central midfield vs Croatia, but it must find greater options in attack for the out ball, and better organization on the break.

The return of Joel Obi is especially wellcome. He brings additional technical quality to central midfield that is lacking with Onazi, even while recognizing the latter's combative qualities. It remains to be seen whether he can be fully integrated into the team, and especially whether he can stay fit.

Sadly for the team, the wide player Henry Onyekuru has had a difficult season with injuries and has been unavailable for integration into the side. His qualities on the left would have complimented Moses on the right, especially with the indifferent season of Moses Simon and Alex Iwobi. This in turn means increased pressure on the left side of the defence.

Overall, the various elements of how the team play, or the composition of the squad are well in place, and only a few questions remain. This will be an interesting mundiale....

How far can this team go?

Hard to say at this point, but it has a good chance to get out of the group. The team lacks exceptional individuals, like Argentina or top professionals, like Croatia, but it has its own qualities from a youthful and vibrant side. It also has a manager who is well aware of the team's capabilities, and who will play within this, regardless....