The Nations Cup begins this weekend with a slightly less open field and competition as the 2013 edition. It also begins without African powers Nigeria and Egypt, the former from a failure to build on its surprise success in 2013, and the latter from weaknesses that transcend the management of its domestic game.
2. As is often the case in recent tournaments, the seeding system by CAF has conspired to reward too much of the status quo rather than form and progressive development. The result is a truncated distribution of teams that unfortunately lumps Ghana, Senegal, Algeria and South Africa in one group, and a Zambian team that has been living on the dregs and leftovers of its 2012 success is rewarded with a seed.
3. As the competition gets set to begin, two key off-field issues will be significant, the quality of the playing surface and the weather. In 2012, the image of some "water polo" contests in Gabon remains seared in the mind, as was the cattle grazing fields in South Africa a year later...
4. In my opinion Cameroon starts out as the favorites to win this tournament. Readers of this blog will recall that I first called attention to the early signs of a Cameroonian revival two years ago. Readers will also recall my criticism of Volke Finke for the slow pace of his transition from the Eto'o generation of players. Today the rewards of a forward looking selection policy is self evident, a fact that I suspect will be further reinforced by the recent retirement of Song from the team.
5. My position on Cameroon is based on two things: an improved team spirit and strength in defence, with a team that is competitive in both the passing game in open play, as well as the counterattack. A formula that will get you success any day of the week in African football. I especially look forward to seeing Edgar Salli, Clinton N'jie and the young Franck Bagnack, should he get to play. But I remain unconvinced by Choupo Moting, even while recognizing his work rate.
6. The current Ivorien team has remained steadily at the top echelon of African football since 2008, but with nothing to show for it by way of titles, except the perennial tag of favorites. They come into the tournament again with probably the most complete and experienced squad, but a lingering malaise that successive coaches have been unable to eradicate. With two of the best players in Africa today in Yaya Toure and Wilfred Bony, there is clear evidence of a lack of reinvention in defence especially. Thankfully Sol Bamba and Zokora have been finally replaced, but the sense remains that it's been too late coming. The young Espanyol centerback Eric Bailly is an interesting prospect, and his round-house physical approach should find fertile ground in African football! Nonetheless, this team should be in contention, especially with the African experience and motivational skills of Herve Renard, even if not altogether his attention to tactical details.
7. Algeria arrive at the tournament with clearly the best team in the continent over the last one and half years. A very balanced squad in both personnel and systems, its pace from midfield and the defensive platform provided by Bentaleb and Medhi from midfield, enables the team fully exploit the pace of Brahimi, Djabou and Feghouli in attack. Although the current form of the latter is a little concerning. Of all the top teams in the tournament, the condition of the playing surface is likely to affect Algeria the most, because of the nature of its attacking game and transitions.
8. Ghana remain a powerful force that should content for the title, but there is an unmistakeable sense that this is a team in decline, a situation further compounded by bizarre decisions on coaching changes since the exit of the Serbian Milovan Rajevac. The injury and absence of Mojeed Warris will hurt the team, as will the lack of regular playing time by key players, especially in midfield. In defence the team is a little light in terms of depth. The addition of Augsburg's Baba Rahman is a welcome change. Overall there is not enough quality young players coming through in the team. In attack Mahatma Otoo should be an interesting player to watch especially with the fitness doubts surrounding Gyan. What he lacks in technique, he more than makes up in his fighting spirit...
9. Among the outsiders in this tournament, I suspect one of South Africa, Tunisia and Senegal could possibly be one of the teams to watch. In my opinion, given its football infrastructure and organization, South Africa has often underachieved in the continent, largely from a lack of self belief. But Shakes Mashaba's team has grown consistently in confidence, underlined by its performance over the last one year, and could spring a surprise.
10. Finally I look forward to watching the continued development of Cape Verde, with its attention to the fundamentals of the team game, and especially with its organization in defence.
11. Among the young players to watch are Ghana's Baba Rahman, Cameroon's Clinto N'jie, DR Congo's centerback Chancel Mbemba, and Congo's Thievy Bifouma.
