The State of African Football

1. The Nations Cup has come to a fairytale end with the triumph of Zambia and its march to the tune of destiny. Congratulations to Zambia on a deserved victory...Its conclusion in many ways defines the state of African football, in a manner that allows us to look at its immediate future. But I do suspect that the 2013 Nations Cup will be more definitive in its conclusions than this one...
2. The qualification and performance of such teams as Niger, Sudan, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, etc has also been heralded as the dawn of a new era of progress in African football, a claim I have sought to disprove here. 
3. However the pattern that has continued since Egypt's three consecutive titles is the influence of the proximity and availability of players on team spirit and chemistry, and the impact that has had on success, in sharp contrast to countries that have the difficult task of building teams through the limited crack of the FIFA international games window.
4. The defining factor behind this changing dynamic in my opinion has been the influence of the African Nations Championship (CHAN), which began in 2009 and exclusively limited to players from their respective domestic championships and qualified to play in the ongoing season. The competition, along with the CAF Champions League, has allowed several countries, especially but not limited to the lower tier teams such as Sudan, Niger, Libya, but also Tunisia and Zambia etc, a chance to build their national teams from home, and use the Euro-based players to supplement.
5. Winning the 2011 CHAN was the decisive factor in Tunisia presenting a vastly improved team at the ANC, as is the case with Gabon, Sudan and Niger. But it has also impacted the ability of top tier countries like Ghana and Zambia to replenish their teams, and I suspect will help Congo DR rebound in the future.
6. The abiding lesson of Egypt's trifecta of ANC titles, Zambia's triumph and the performances of Sudan, Niger, Libya and Tunisia is the importance of a viable domestic game as the foundation for the national team, irrespective of the number of players in Europe, and how many feature for the likes of Barcelona, Madrid, Bayern or Chelsea...
7. Zambia's unlikely triumph is evidence most of all of a superior team spirit, even if the talent was not always superior...For many in this team, this will have to be the last hurray and Zambia will have to begin the difficult road of transition.
8. The failure of CIV to win the ANC is evidence of a road not taken. It is testimony to a coaching decision to play in a manner that was as constraining as it was tentative. And especially against Zambia, it was evidence of a deliberate decision to tailor tactics, not to one's strengths, but that of the opponent. It was reactive rather than proactive....In the end the sight of a vastly superior Ivorien team with the likes of Yaya Toure, Tiote and Zokora unable to even control the game in midfield, and cowering instead into a deep defensive line, was the worst case of cowardice I've seen since a Berti Vogts led Nigerian team went into a defensive shell after Ghana had John Mensah sent off in the 2008 ANC quarter finals.
9. The result is that this generation of Ivoriens have still not won anything nearly a decade since emerging on the continental scene. Going forward, the Ivoriens must prioritize the rebuilding of badly damaged morale from the loss to Zambia. This would begin with securing the commitment of Yaya Toure who is making small noises about retiring from international football. But the good news is the Ivoriens have a reservoir of talent to seamlessly replace the likes of Zokora, Drogba and Kolo Toure.
10. The Black Stars came to the ANC with a swagger and left with a whimper! A bold prediction by coach Goran Stevanovic would ironically feed into a mindset of entitlement and overconfidence, and a team lacking cutting edge in the last third from the first game, would paper over cracks from a combination of weak opposition and good fortune until luck deserted them against Zambia, and they neither had the bench nor a Plan B to mount a credible fight back.
11. Whatever his explanation might be, especially reading through his technical report, Stevanovic must take responsibility for the lack of creativity in this Black Stars team, especially from a midfield with more destructive than creative players. Whats more, his use of Andre Ayew in the tournament lacked imagination.
12. Looking forward, Ghana will continue to benefit from the stability in management of the team and evolution of playing personnel. However, players like Muntari, John Mensah, Asamoah Gyan, Pantsil, Vorsah and Tagoe need to be replaced, and a credible right back identified. Vital too should be securing the return to international football of Kevin Prince Boateng, as well as creating a pathway for emerging young players like  the Parlemo and Fiorentina midfielders, Afriyie Acquah and Maxwell Acosty to get a look in. The lack of creativity in the final third was critical to the failure of this team.
13. Among the teams that failed to qualify for the ANC, the case of Nigeria and Cameroon remains especially dire. The reasons behind the failures of both countries have been long in coming and draw substantially from administrative failures in the management of football, including poor hiring decisions as well as coaching failures. These administrative failures remain and in the case of Nigeria may be getting worse.
14. The legal issues surrounding the name of the NFF is being addressed by the National Assembly. But the governance problems remain, unless you are like FIFA willing to stick your head in the sand and pretend that government interference is simply about who controls the FA board and its election, even when such a board is almost entirely funded by government, its staff civil servants, and its legal existence based on an act of congress!
15. But the core of a competitive team still remains. It is against this background that coach Stephen Keshi is implementing a bold approach to rebuilding the Super Eagles from the domestic game outwards (Link). Such an approach has the potential to vastly expand the options available to him, both in personnel and the tactical organization of the team. 
16. The uncertain political climate in Egypt was always going to impact its football, but the recent violence has simply made a bad situation worse. Three successive ANC titles and failure to qualify for the world cup in South Africa meant that an era in Egyptian football had come to an end. But the potential for developing a viable new team is very strong, especially against the performance of the U-20 team in Colombia and more recently the U-23 team.
17. Of the three North African powers, Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia, the latter appears best positioned for the future, having presented a well balanced team at the ANC. After a dominating first half performance against Ghana in the quarter-finals, old habits would die hard and the familiar cynical tactics promptly returned in the second period of the game. The biggest challenge for the future would be replacing Karim Haggui at center back in the next few years. The future looks bright for Tunisia.
18. With another ANC scheduled in 2013, I expect the current trend of competitiveness to continue but with diminishing likelihood of upsets, and the return of more familiar faces to the competition.

Rwanda vs Nigeria: Keshi's Bold Experiment

1. When Nigeria take on Rwanda in Kigali in the 2013 Africa Nations cup qualifiers, there is a strong chance that the team list will be made up of more than the token homebased player.
2. With eleven players called up from Europe and the entire 20-man homebased squad which just defeated Liberia in Monrovia also invited, there is every chance of that happening, especially in central defence and right back. But that is not really the issue here...
3. It appears from the events leading up to this game that Keshi has reversed the order in which the Super Eagles teams have been developed in recent times, by beginning the process from the domestic league and using the Euro-based players to supplement. Time will tell how much the final lineup bears this out...But why is this important?
4. As in all things football, any approach is as good as the validation that results from the field provides, and this approach will be no different.
5. As I have stated before, the domestic league is a jewel of inestimable value; you never know what you are going to get (Link)! But make no mistake, Nigeria's best natural talents lie in the domestic game and not in the leagues of Europe. They represent a viable way to refresh a stale national team or expand the tactical options available to national team coaches.
6. A player like Ejike Uzoenyi is a viable option at left midfield to provide width to the team and stretch opposing defences, as well as use his pace to get behind defences.
7. Regarding the contingent from Europe, it is dissapointing to see the return of Sani Kaita. But let there be no misunderstanding! I am a strong believer in the rights of a coach, any coach to freely select any player of his choosing as long as he lives or dies by his results. So I do not question Keshi's rights to select Kaita.
8. Truth be said, Sani Kaita has been a loyal servant of the national team at every level and every game he has played in, the red card nothithstanding.
9. But I am dissapointed nonetheless because it is the responsibility of a national team coach to set performance standards for our players, at whatever level they practice their trade, and enforce such. Sani Kaita at the moment does not begin to meet any concievable positive performance standard. I like Sani Kaita; I think he deserves to be in the Super Eagles, but we should challenge him to earn it, not give him a pass....
10. But if the case of Kaita is a little understandable, the invitation of Yakubu Aiyegbeni is downright dubious. The problem with the Super Eagles that Keshi inherited from Siasia was not the attack. If anything, the data shows a vast improvement in attack and the performance of the strikers. We have multiple options in attack that meet our immediate needs and are viable for the long term. The time to fully integrate them into the team is now, not in one or two years when Yakubu might have made the inevitable descent to the English Championship!
11. On the other hand Victor Moses is invited and hopefully makes a long awaited debut for Nigeria. His pace and especially his ability to play between the lines, either centrally in midfield or running diagonally from wide areas, should bring something new to the team. 

Nigeria Squad:

Euro-based: Vincent Enyeama, Taye Taiwo, Joseph Yobo; Joel Obi, Dickson Etuhu, Sani Kaita, Victor Moses;  Ikechukwu Uche, Osaze Odemwingie, Yakubu Aiyegbeni, Ahmed Musa.

Home-based:Chigozie Agbim, Godfrey Oboabona, Juwon Oshaniwa, Gabriel Reuben, Uche Ossai, Sunday Mba, Kalu Uche, Papa Idris, Henry Uche, Osasco Omamo, Obinna Nwachukwu, Izu Azuka, Ejike Uzoenyi, Sunday Emmanuel, Kabir Umar, Kingsley Salami, Uche Oguchi, Okemute Odah, Bartholomew Ibenegbu, Azubuike Egwueke

A Nations Cup Final in the Shadow of Tragedy....

1. The Zambians ride an emotional wave all the way to Libreville for the final game of the Nations Cup! What a story it will be if the win it all...
2. Congratulations to Felix Katongo and his teammates, and also to Herve Renard for guiding them through pre-tournament favorites like Senegal and Ghana. Many European coaches who work in Africa, inevitably simply pass through like tourists, observing from a distance but never assimilating the local culture. Herve Renard has done brilliantly well to channel the emotions of this team in a manner to draw inspiration from the huge tragedy of the loss of the Zambian team in that unfortunate air crash on April 26, 1993.
3. After the loss to Nigeria two years ago, Renard has reshaped his side into a more conservative and streetwise team, playing on the counterattack, based on a hardworking rather than a typically flambouyant midfield, as we have come to so often associate with Zambia.
4. Facing a superior but one dimensional opponent in Ghana, Renard's use of the versatile TP Mazembe defender, Francis Kasondo in a deep defensive position in midfield helped limit the Black Stars control of the zone in front of the defence, and constrain Asamoah Gyan's ability to win the second ball. They would ride their luck, extremely, but the Ghanaian challenge would soon petered out in the face of Zambian energy, and on the back of overconfidence, injuries and limited tactical and personnel options.
5. Zambia play a nominal 4-4-2 formation but with Katongo often dropping into midfield to serve as the link to the attack especially in the penultimate phase of the counterattack. His game so far has been energetic even if occassionally indisciplined.
6. Much of the success of this team so far has come from the powerful central midfield duo of Chisamba Lungu and Nathan Sinkala. But the team is at its most threatening form with Rainford Kalaba on the ball wide on the left. Brilliant going forward, his lack of effective support for his fullback can be a liability. Against the Ivoriens, his defensive contribution would become a significant issue if Musonda at left back is allowed to be isolated with Gervinho and Gosso overlapping from right back.
7. Against the Ivoriens, I expect both Lungu and Sinkala to come under pressure and would have to play quickly, without dwelling in possession or forced into merely kicking the ball downfield. 
8. The Ivoriens have so far conducted this campaign methodically and with great discipline in a predominantly 4-3-3 formation, playing well within themselves in the first stage and slowly expanding their domination of the opponent from the quarter final stage, but without resort to the expansive game of previous tournaments.
9. Against Zambia, I expect the Ivoriens to dominate in midfield, both numerically and tactically, and especially with territorial control to deny the East Africans opportunities on the counter.
10. I expect the Ivoriens to press hard and high upfield to minimize both time and space on the ball, especially on Lungu and Sinkala, who are both susceptible to pressure.
11. In this regard, Didier Zokora's performance in the middle of a midfield trio will be crucial in reading the game and covering undefended zones as the team presses the ball, as well as denying Katongo space in the zone in front of the defence.
12. The key matchups to look for will be between Gervinho and Musonda, and between Kalaba and Gosso; also between Drogba and Sunzu as well as Zokora and Katongo.
13. On the whole, the Zambian team has defended with great athleticism and resoluteness without ever needing any complex tactical organization, a quality best exemplified by Stophira Sunzu at right centerback. However they show great vulnerability in defending the zone on the inside of the fullbacks. But I get the distinct sense that in Ivory Coast they will be faced with much more than they can handle.
14. But what a story it will be if the Zambians triumph in Libreville...  And whether they win or not, they'll walk in the shadow of giants before them and in the background the the collective spirit of:

• Efford Chabala (goalkeeper)
• John Soko (defender)
• Whiteson Changwe (defender)
• Robert Watiyakeni (defender)
• Eston Mulenga (midfielder)
• Derby Makinka (midfielder)
• Moses Chikwalakwala (midfielder)
• Wisdom Mumba Chansa (midfielder)
• Kelvin "Malaza" Mutale (striker)
• Timothy Mwitwa (striker)
• Numba Mwila (midfielder)
• Richard Mwanza (goalkeeper)
• Samuel Chomba (defender)
• Moses Masuwa (striker)
• Kenan Simambe (defender)
• Godfrey Kangwa (midfielder)
• Winter Mumba (defender)
• Patrick "Bomber" Banda (striker)

 RIP...

Africa Nations Cup: Semi-Finals Preview- Ghana vs Zambia

1. We had to wait until the quarter finals to see the first truly high quality game of the tournament. Pity it was marred in the end by the stupidity of Tunisian players and the predictable gamesmanship of a Ghanaian team edging the game in extra time and seeking to keep their advantage.
2. A tactically balanced Black Stars team was suprisingly one dimensional, repeatedly looking to release Asamoah Gyan with the long ball and getting no change from Abdenour at center back. He had one shot on goal!
3. With two defensive midfielders, Annan and Badu in a 4-2-3-1, Inkoom was being pushed wide on the right to stretch the Tunisian defence and deliver crosses into the box. The tactic failed; worse still, his defensive weaknesses were repeatedly exposed.
4. If this Ghanaian team fails in the tournament, it will be largely on the back of two limited defensive midfielders, and the failure to adequately replace Kevin Prince Boateng's creativity from midfield. It will also be the result of the inability of Muntari to offer much to the team so far.
5. Suprisingly, the Tunisians had the technical edge in midfield, with Annan and Badu playing square and unable to deal with the North Africans rotating  players behind them and executing quick give and go passes, but often constrained by a lack of composure in the last third.
6. But old cynical habits die hard for Tunisia and they would promptly retreat into safety mode in the second half. A Ghanaian team on the ropes was let off the hook, and the entry of Jordan Ayew would change the balance of the game.
7. In the end Ghana won with a goal from a set piece and a horrendous goalkeeping error. Not a good sign...
8. Against Zambia, the Black Stars will start with the edge in key areas of the field, except in the wide defensive areas, with the average performance of Pantsil, Inkoom's weaknesses and Massawudu's inexperience.
9. This is a Zambia team built more for the counterattack than the open attacking team of two years ago. Like Ghana, it has struggled for creativity in the last third, and often lacks the explosive speed to make its counterattack decisive.
10. Playing a 4-4-2, the Zambian team has often lacked discipline. Katongo has frequently drifted aimlessly where he is expected to drop into midfield in the non-possession phase. The two central midfielders Sinkala and Chansa, powerful as they are, sometimes push forward simultaneously, leaving gaps behind them.
11. I expect Ghana to dominate in midfield with a 5/4 advantage in numbers, and to press Zambia high upfield and take advantage of the tendency of their midfield players to dwell on the ball. Derek Boateng should replace the injured Agyeman Badu; sad really as this should ideally be a great opportunity to play Asamoah alongside Annan and restore balance to central midfield. Hopefully Jordan Ayew starts; the decision to use Muntari on the outside of midfield did not work vs Tunisia. 

Africa Nations Cup: Random Musings on the Group Games

1. The two hosts qualification for the quarter finals has to be the story of the group stage of the ANC. The case of Equatorial Guinea is especially telling. Whatever happens against the Ivoriens, this has been a successful tournament for Equatorial Guinea.
2. As for Gabon, they have produced the best attacking game in the tournament so far, playing with pace and power, verve and passion. In my opinion if they can reduce the influence of Keita in central midfield, they should have too much pace out wide and power upfront for the Malian defence.
3. Zambia on paper will go into their match with Sudan as favorites. But in reality the gap between both teams is minimal. However the Zambian counterattacking game should find great favor with a Sudanese team with a haphazard defensive organization, often relying almost entirely on the athleticism of players in key defensive situations. But Zambia has multiple weaknesses, often struggling for creativity in the final third and lacking pace in wide areas, both in attack and defence.
4. The Ivoriens have easily the most complete squad in the tournament. In their play, they remind you of a race car driver on cruise control in a Mesarati, confident in the knowledge of his superiority. However there is always the chance of a driver in a Kia flashing by him from nowhere! The Ivoriens are attempting to play within themselves, but they appear discomfited and not a little tentative, often leaving gaps behind the central midfielders for the counterattck. The most impact of this constricted approach is on Yaya Toure and to a lesser extent Chiekh Tiote who have so far had an anonymous tournamant. How well they handle an insurgent Equatorial Guinea team will go a long way in validating the approach they have chosen in the tournament.
5. The Ghana -Tunisia match up is the top game of the quarter final rounds. The Ghanaians remain the most tactically balanced team in the tournament. However the lack of creative end product from either Muntari or Kwadwo Asamoah from the central midfield role behind Gyan in a 4-2-3-1 formation continues to constrain the team. In Tunisia they will be facing a team which has troubles dealing with physically dominant teams, with a central defence lacking pace and positional discipline, especially the appropriately named Bilel Ifa! The main weakness of this Ghanaian team in my opinion is in the limited contribution of the duo of Anthony Annan and Agyeman Badu in the central defensive midfield position.

VERDICT:

• A largely tepid round of group matches, illuminated by the epic contest between Morocco and Gabon.
• The decision to play the Libya-Zambia 'water polo' match in many ways underlined the ineptitude of Issa Hayatou's CAF.
• On the officiating, the referees assistants continue to blow their offsides call.

INDIVIDUAL AWARD: An Oscar for Equatorial Guinea's Narcisse Ekanga who brought hollywood home to Africa! http://youtu.be/BJbSxMt7oH8


BILLY BEANE BEAN COUNTING AWARD: For the number of times Niger's central defender Mohammed 'the Butcher of Niamey' Chicoto went to ground and lunged in order to make a tackle.....

Africa Nations Cup: Random Musings on Day 1 Games

1. The two hosts, Equatorial Guinea and Gabon began with wins. This can only bode well for the tournament as it ensures interest of the fans, at least in the games involving the home teams. Of the two hosts, Gabon is obviously the stronger side and Morocco's opening day loss means they have one foot already in the second round.

2. But in defeating Niger 2-0, familiar weaknesses exist in defensive coverage in midfield, with runners behind the central midfielders often untracked. On the offensive, Niger's abundant generosity in the time and space it afforded Gabon could have and should have been punished more severely. But these are early days and a stiffer test will come in the next two games.

3. Unlike many, Zambia's triumph over Senegal came as no surprise. They are a more cohesive team and have played together longer. Senegal on the other hand is a young team with some very talented young players, especially in attack. But the quality of the team declines as you move backwards through midfield to the defence. However, surprising for me was evidence of continued mental weaknesses about this Zambian team, which nearly gifted Senegal a way back in the game, even with numerous opportunities that the game offered the East Africans on the counterattack.

4. In Group B, the Ivoriens towered over their nearest rivals without being convincing. With a game based on the 4-3-3 formation, and the dominant controlled possession in midfield, the decision on the use of Yaya Toure denied the team the Man City players decisive powerful surges from midfield., which in turn impacted the play in wide areas and the options off the ball that both Gervinho and  Kalou had. In addition, weaknesses in the defensive organization presented opportunities for Sudan on the counter. A stronger team will be less forgiving...

As I stated earlier, the performance of Gervinho and Kalou in their roles as wide forwards, will go a long way in determining how far this team goes.

5. The most dissapointing team in this round of games has to be Morocco. They had the game, the setup and the talent to beat Tunisia. Not only did they fail to do that, but they showed familiar weaknesses in previous Nations Cup flops, at every level of the game and department of the team. If there is any positive from their performance, it has to be the fact they created chances. The draws mean they face the strongest teams in the group in their first two games, meaning they must win their remaining matches. I believe they have the game to beat Gabon, but I doubt they have the self belief...

6. The Black Stars of Ghana proved to be the outstanding performers in the opening games, with a dominant controlled possession game in midfield and an imperious John Mensah in the heart of defence. While stiffer tests will come than the defensive minded Botswana, the Ghanaians know how they want to play, how to support each other, and have the professionalism and experience to overcome adversity, as they showed following Mensah's deserved dismissal.

While the Ayew brothers were a bit quiet, you get the distinct sense they have a few gears in reserve. But Muntari continues to dissapoint in his execution of his tactical role in midfield, behind Asamoah Gyan.

A Wide Open Africa Nations Cup...

I have often said that when African players return to play for their national teams, they often leave behind their professionalism in Europe. The result is that the African Nations Cup (ANC) typically runs high on emotion and spontaneity but less on tactical organization and discipline. The ANC has often favored the teams built with emphasis on defensive organization, tactical balance and some cutting edge in attack. Nigeria and Cameroon in 1988, Nigeria in 1990 (reaching the finals with an inexperienced team), Cote d‘Ivoire (CIV) in 1992, South Africa in 1996 and ’98, Cameroon in 2000 and 2002, Tunisia in 2004, Egypt in 2008, Egypt and a young Ghana team in 2010…

This edition begins in Gabon and Equatorial Guinea as the most wide open field since a Nigerian team withdrew as overwhelming favorites on the eve of the competition in 1996.

Without Egypt, Cameroon, Nigeria and South Africa, the elite African teams in the competition are CIV and Ghana, with the likes of Morocco, Tunisia and Senegal at various stages in the maturity of their young teams.

With two 3rd tier teams, Gabon and Equatorial Guinea as hosts; are such minnows as Niger, Botswana, Libya and Sudan as well as perennial underachievers Mali, Zambia and a washed out Angola. At the same time, the nature of the first round groups means that one of CIV, Angola, or Burkina Faso, will not be in the quarter final rounds, as is one of the trio of Ghana, Mali and Guinea, as well as Gabon, Morocco or Tunisia. 

This will not rank as one of the classic Nations Cup tournaments.  

Many have pointed to the presence of such minnows as Niger, Botswana, Libya and Sudan as evidence of the progress of African football. The familiar cliché is that there are no more minnows in African football. I could not disagree more! 

The ANC has always had a presence of minnows albeit to varying degrees. The 1996 tournament for instance featured Sierra Leone, Liberia, Gabon, Mozambique and Burkina Faso. The 1984 tournament in the old eight team format featured Malawi. In 1978 an unheralded Uganda team reached the finals only to be easily beaten by Ghana. They have not been heard of since...

In my opinion the absence of several top tier teams in the tournament, with the exception of Egypt, is symptomatic of the malaise in Africa where teams grow without developing football through the domestic game. Even accounting for the disruptive influence of the departure of top players to Europe, the absence of sustainable structures often results in a landscape dominated by short cycles of boom and stagnation, corresponding with the ability of players to break through at top European clubs.

Worse still, the foundations for development of youth football are often subverted by the myopic focus on winning youth tournaments rather than developing youth football. Sustainable progress in African football cannot be based solely on the ability of African players to win contracts and breakthrough at top European teams. In Nigeria for instance, virtually the entire structure for the development of football is at a complete standstill as a result of administrative ineptitude and corruption.

Progress in African football is not measured by random movements at the bottom of the pyramid, but developments at the top...
 

And supervising over this sad state of affairs remains Issa Hayatou, CAF President since 1987, and whose secretariat somehow managed to put together the most confusing qualification series ever organized in the history of the global game! The BBC Sports page, on the final weekend of qualifying games, was ample proof of Africa's embarassment laid bare  (Link). The puzzle that was the ANC qualifiers included the nullification of duly played matches as if they never happened, with no refunds to thousands of fans, many paying gate fees from hard earned money.

How long must Africa put up with Issa Hayatou?

At the 2012 ANC, two teams, CIV and Ghana stand out as overwhelming favorites. The Ivoriens have been favorites since this generation of top players emerged simultaneously in 2006. But since then, the team has repeatedly failed to meet expectations and has won nothing in a span of 3 ANC competitions. 

The result is that six years on, key players such as Drogba, Kolo Toure and Zokora have lost a few steps. On the other hand though, Yaya Toure is probably at the top of his career with Man City; ditto for Cheick Tiote at Newcastle, while Seydou Doumbia is having an impressive season in attack at CSKA Moscow. The Ivoriens will start the tournament with the best central midfield duo in the competition in Yaya and Tiote. Although lacking pace in defence, there should be enough cover from midfield to protect the backline. The decisive issue for CIV will likely be the performance of Gervinho and Kalou as wide forwards in a 4-3-3 formation.

On the other hand Ghana’s return to the apex of African football has been based in large part to stability, both in playing philosophy (even with changes in coaches) and the ability to constantly rejuvenate the team with young talent. 

In a direct head to head comparison, CIV have the advantage in quality of playing personnel, but Ghana has the stronger unit, both in terms of overall tactical organization and team spirit. Lacking an explosive attacking game, the success of the team in recent years has been based on strong defensive organization, especially in midfield and the ability to break quickly in attack. At the World Cup in South Africa, Kevin Prince Boateng best embodied these qualities. His inexplicable retirement from international football, coupled with the poor form of Sulley Muntari will leave the team a little short on the creative side. In attack a considerable factor in Ghana’s ability to win the tournament will depend on the form of the Ayew brothers, especially Andre Ayew, coming from wide positions to support Gyan (if fit) in attack. 

Should both teams meet in the finals, my vote would be on the Ivoriens.

Outside of these two teams, I expect strong performances from Morocco, Gabon and Senegal who have rebuilt their team with an array of young players, especially in attack. But weaknesses exist in its defensive organization and the quality of players in defence. 

If the Moroccans start well in their opening game, I expect them to be one of the surprise teams of the tournament, playing with a tightly balanced team that is able to identify its best moment to attack. Eric Gerets focus on physical condition and tight defensive organization are two things that often find favor with the ANC, especially with the talent in midfield with the likes of Boussoufa, Kharja and Taarabt (if he rediscovers his apettite for the national team).

Of the two hosts, only Gabon has the ability to turn the home field into an advantage. They had come quite close to springing a suprise in the last world cup qualifiers, eventually losing steam when Cameroon finally found a second gear. What they lack in quality will be more than made up by the team spirit.