Nigeria meets Zambia in the Africa World Cup Qualifiers on Sunday October 9 at Ndola, in a game of two African greats struggling to re-establish themselves in the continent.
For Nigeria and German coach Gernot Rohr these are the five key tactical points in previewing the game:
1. How high will the defensive line be. Will Nigeria set up in a low or medium block?
Against an average Tanzania side, Nigeria sought to press the ball with modest results, primarily as a result of haphazard organization behind the first line of the press. On the road, it will be interesting to see how brave Rohr will be, especially considering that the Zambian attack is not particularly endowed with great pace. Conversely, many in the Nigerian back-four are of average speed.
African team football, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, is based first on expressive individual technique and spontaneous creativity. While this can sometimes be devastating in the final third, it also leaves massive room for turnover of possession. This is why I have often maintained that teams with a modicum of compact organization and a threat of the counterattack, will always make hay in the continent, as we see with Cape Verde currently.
2. What will be the team's structure in midfield? Specifically, what will be the position of Mikel Obi? How close will the lines be in the non-possession phase?
Starting especially with Samson Siasia's Olympics team, Mikel's position has surprisingly moved further upfield, and Rohr appears to have continued with this. This has good and bad sides. On the positive side, it gives Nigeria a platform, high in the opposition half to retain possession technically, without loss of the ball, in the second or third phase of the build up.
On the downside however, it slows the team down and reduces the fluidity of the team. I am clearly not a fan of this move...I think that Nigeria is better served with Mikel in his Chelsea role, as a screen in front of the back-four in an inverted triangle.
3. How close will be the lines between the defenders, especially between the CDs and the fullbacks?
Zambia typically look to play quickly through midfield, interspersed with the long ball behind the fullbacks especially, with Mbesuma and Kalongo often spreading wide. But the key to unbalancing a close defensive line is Rainford Kalaba. I will especially be watching the performance of Musa Mohammed at right back and how well the centerbacks squeeze the space behind the fullbacks.
As Nigeria looks to recover with Rohr as the new manager, it is imperative that efforts be made to look for options in defence, and there are quite a few. But it will require strong diplomacy and proper scouting, especially in the local league.
4. Related to #3 above, what will be the starting position of the wide midfielders? What will be the default pattern of movement in the attacking phase?
I raise this especially because Nigeria's best options in this position, have often not been renowned for their defensive contribution. Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, many of them (excluding Moses) play decidedly more advanced roles than they are made to play in the Super Eagles, a good example being Ahmed Musa, who is no longer a winger, but repeatedly placed in that role for Nigeria.
I am equally interested in observing the positioning of Alex Iwobi, whose great, great quality is his movement between the lines. What will their role definition reveal- more tradition, stasis or greater fluidity?
5. Who replaces Odion Ighalo?
Watching Ighalo play for Nigeria often leaves me with some conflict. Clearly the most established Nigerian center forward, but an old school forward who thrives best with an attacking partner, in the middle of an attacking trio of quick and flexible forwards. Not necessarily a negative, if the lines of movement around him is better defined...
Brown Ideye is suggested as the odds on favorite to start. In my considered opinion, the quickly Rohr moves away from options such as these, the better for Nigeria. Brown may get you a goal or two, eventually, but best not to resurrect ghosts....
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