The African world cup qualifiers has come to its critical final phase, with the rash of points deductions and disqualification threatening to make a farce of the entire process. It is a sad testimony to the administration of the game that local FAs and indeed CAF cannot keep and update their records to avoid the use of ineligible players, the case of Cape Verde being particularly pathetic.
Ten teams, Algeria, Burkina Faso; Cameroon, Tunisia; CIV, Senegal; Egypt, Ghana; Ethiopia, Nigeria; are scheduled for a home and away playoff series between 11-15 October and 15-19 November.
Looking back to the group games, it is a matter for serious concern that no team actually stood out in terms of the consistent high quality of its game, with Cameroon and Tunisia particularly underwhelming. Granted that the nature and time limitations of qualification series constrains team building and the fine tuning of tactics, and that the poor state of pitches has greatly affected the fluidity of team play, the quality of play is nonetheless disappointing. Afterall, similar rebuilding efforts, within this same time frame by Van Gaal and Fabio Capello for instance, have produced teams of much higher quality in Holland and Russia.
Less than one year from Brazil 2014, the standard of the African game is not even at the level of its most successful team in 2010, Ghana. While there are notable improvements in the quality of the lower tier teams like Cape Verde and Ethiopia, standards at the top level have declined! And given the reality that some FAs will be tempted to make rash last minute decisions on coaches, the outlook for the African game vis a vis Brazil 2014 is most certainly not bright.
Ethiopia has done extremely well to get to the final qualification stage. But this run should now end.. Overall, while the team has improved from its showing at the Nations cup, this remains an average African team, capable of high spirited, even if loosely organized games in front of a vociferous home crowd.
Ironically, in the last meeting between the two teams, there was little to separate both sides in terms of chances in the final third, until the decisive save by Enyeama and the quality of Moses irrevocably turned the game.
Tactically the organization of team play lacks detail orientation, with a tendency to play vertically in search of top striker Saladin Said. When it attempts to play out of defence, the positioning of the defensive players is haphazard and unbalanced, rendering it susceptible to high pressing.
The key feature of the attacking game in midfield is the play of the tall rangy Asrat Gobena, often with little interplay at the base of midfield and the delivery of the long ball to exploit Saladin's hold up play, or the hard running of Getaneh.
Further upfield, the real variety in the team's play comes from Shimeles Bekele attacking from wide right, with an appetite for running at the fullback, on the outside and a little more dangerous, diagonally.
The structure of team play and the spirited attempts to get forward quickly often leaves the team in a 4-2-4 shape, with vast opportunities for the counterattack or the quick pass and move around the reduced numbers and abundant spaces in midfield. This weakness created multiple opportunities for South Africa, with the lack of quality in the final third letting the Bafana down.
Right-back Tesfaye is especially weak in positioning and recovery, and should have plenty to chew over against Moses.
While the altitude might constrain the ability of Nigeria to engage in full-court pressing, a targeted focus on Asrat (and Adane, should he start) maybe advisable, perhaps by strategically dropping Emenike or Moses into midfield to close him down.
But the key for Nigeria will be to control the tempo of the game from the very beginning, take the fervor out of the match with controlled possession in midfield, and position the team to decisively punish the inevitable mistakes from Ethiopia.
Unlike many, I believe the Egyptians have a very good chance against the Ghana Black Stars, especially if they are able to address the problems they have in central defence, and the absence of a real screen from midfield, in front of the back four.
Two basic problems have plagued Kwesi Appiah's side for nearly two years now. First is the slow pace of evolution in terms of the injection of new energy and dynamism into the team and the continued lack of identity, from a team that was built for the counterattack by Milovan Rajevac. The situation is not helped by the declining powers of several key players, whose careers have in some cases stalled, like Christian Atsu, or declined altogether like Asamoah Gyan.
Tactically, Kwesi Appiah has never gotten the right balance in central midfield, and the team is much too dependent on the ability of Ayew and Wakaso to unbalance the opponent in 1v1 situations, with the trademark movements between the lines from midfield often lacking or disjointed.
However the political troubles in Egypt has severely affected its domestic game and led to a largely unsettled team. But the manner in which the team came through the qualifiers is indicative of resilience and a growing team spirit. If Egypt get its organization and discipline right in Kumasi, especially between Walid Gomaa and Ahmed Hegazi, I expect them to surprise Ghana.
Burkina Faso will face Algeria as the most improved side in the continent coming from the Nations Cup. This in my opinion should be the most even contest in the series. While strong in its defensive organization, Burkina has not been prolific in front of goal, notwithstanding results against Niger. I expect an Algerian win.
The performance of the Ivorien national team in the last decade or more, has continued to reflect massive lost opportunities. In many ways, this team reflects a worrying trend of slip shod commitment to international football among this generation of African footballers. Perhaps no African player reflects this as Yaya Toure, a player who is metronomic at Manchester City, and a near wimp of an Elephant! The situation is made worse by coach Sabri Lamouchi, who in two years has never effectively defined a team ethic (like Stephen Keshi with Nigeria), or a tactical organization that maximizes the strengths of key players. The Ivoriens should prove too strong for Senegal, but not much more...
It is perhaps fitting that Cameroon and Tunisia, two teams that effectively snoozed through the qualifiers get a chance to meet in this decisive phase. With a plethora of quality players, especially young emerging talent, it is sad to see Cameroon, one of the true giants of African football struggle this way....
Predictions: Nigeria, Ivory Coast, Egypt, Algeria, Cameroon.
Ironically, in the last meeting between the two teams, there was little to separate both sides in terms of chances in the final third, until the decisive save by Enyeama and the quality of Moses irrevocably turned the game.
Tactically the organization of team play lacks detail orientation, with a tendency to play vertically in search of top striker Saladin Said. When it attempts to play out of defence, the positioning of the defensive players is haphazard and unbalanced, rendering it susceptible to high pressing.
The key feature of the attacking game in midfield is the play of the tall rangy Asrat Gobena, often with little interplay at the base of midfield and the delivery of the long ball to exploit Saladin's hold up play, or the hard running of Getaneh.
Further upfield, the real variety in the team's play comes from Shimeles Bekele attacking from wide right, with an appetite for running at the fullback, on the outside and a little more dangerous, diagonally.
The structure of team play and the spirited attempts to get forward quickly often leaves the team in a 4-2-4 shape, with vast opportunities for the counterattack or the quick pass and move around the reduced numbers and abundant spaces in midfield. This weakness created multiple opportunities for South Africa, with the lack of quality in the final third letting the Bafana down.
Right-back Tesfaye is especially weak in positioning and recovery, and should have plenty to chew over against Moses.
While the altitude might constrain the ability of Nigeria to engage in full-court pressing, a targeted focus on Asrat (and Adane, should he start) maybe advisable, perhaps by strategically dropping Emenike or Moses into midfield to close him down.
But the key for Nigeria will be to control the tempo of the game from the very beginning, take the fervor out of the match with controlled possession in midfield, and position the team to decisively punish the inevitable mistakes from Ethiopia.
Unlike many, I believe the Egyptians have a very good chance against the Ghana Black Stars, especially if they are able to address the problems they have in central defence, and the absence of a real screen from midfield, in front of the back four.
Two basic problems have plagued Kwesi Appiah's side for nearly two years now. First is the slow pace of evolution in terms of the injection of new energy and dynamism into the team and the continued lack of identity, from a team that was built for the counterattack by Milovan Rajevac. The situation is not helped by the declining powers of several key players, whose careers have in some cases stalled, like Christian Atsu, or declined altogether like Asamoah Gyan.
Tactically, Kwesi Appiah has never gotten the right balance in central midfield, and the team is much too dependent on the ability of Ayew and Wakaso to unbalance the opponent in 1v1 situations, with the trademark movements between the lines from midfield often lacking or disjointed.
However the political troubles in Egypt has severely affected its domestic game and led to a largely unsettled team. But the manner in which the team came through the qualifiers is indicative of resilience and a growing team spirit. If Egypt get its organization and discipline right in Kumasi, especially between Walid Gomaa and Ahmed Hegazi, I expect them to surprise Ghana.
Burkina Faso will face Algeria as the most improved side in the continent coming from the Nations Cup. This in my opinion should be the most even contest in the series. While strong in its defensive organization, Burkina has not been prolific in front of goal, notwithstanding results against Niger. I expect an Algerian win.
The performance of the Ivorien national team in the last decade or more, has continued to reflect massive lost opportunities. In many ways, this team reflects a worrying trend of slip shod commitment to international football among this generation of African footballers. Perhaps no African player reflects this as Yaya Toure, a player who is metronomic at Manchester City, and a near wimp of an Elephant! The situation is made worse by coach Sabri Lamouchi, who in two years has never effectively defined a team ethic (like Stephen Keshi with Nigeria), or a tactical organization that maximizes the strengths of key players. The Ivoriens should prove too strong for Senegal, but not much more...
It is perhaps fitting that Cameroon and Tunisia, two teams that effectively snoozed through the qualifiers get a chance to meet in this decisive phase. With a plethora of quality players, especially young emerging talent, it is sad to see Cameroon, one of the true giants of African football struggle this way....
Predictions: Nigeria, Ivory Coast, Egypt, Algeria, Cameroon.
No comments:
Post a Comment