Africa begins its back to back Nations Cup in South Africa as the Confederation of African Football (CAF) look to finalize the reset of its international calendar.
One year on from the last tournament, no significant movements can be reported from any of the major powers of the African game, except perhaps Cameroon, who appear incredibly to have sunk a little lower!
The result is that the tournament, in my opinion and contrary to conventional wisdom, will begin with no clear favorites.
Among the major powers, Ivory Coast will again stand out with the most complete and deepest squad, with virtually no changes in its major players. One year on, key players like Drogba and Kolo Toure have slowed, while Yaya is as yet not on the level he was at this stage last season. But Wilfreid Bony continues to grow in stature in Holland.
In many ways, Yaya Toure's brief consideration of international retirement underlines much of the problem of the lack of genuine team spirit inherent in this generation of The Elephants. I thought it was interesting that Lamouchi's first address to the team in camp appeared to focus on this...The real prospects of the end of several international careers might be the tonic that finally pushes them over the hump..
It is in this regard that I believe being in a tough group could help focus the Ivoriens and drive them to impose their quality early in the tournament. Lamouchi speaks to the players about confidence; it remains to be seen how much of that confidence he will repose in the players in terms of his tactics, especially with respect to how expansive the role of Yaya Toure will be in midfield.
Ghana will present the most radically altered team of the top nations in the tournament, with as much as ten debutants. In terms of tactical organization, the team is a little less compact and a little less fluid in open play. But in Christian Atsu they have a player of real quality and who has the potential to be a standout in the tournament.
In defence, the team has a lot more speed overall, Isaac Vorsah notwithstanding, but it remains to be seen how well its full court pressing system will hold up in the altitude of South Africa. At left back, Kwesi Appiah is mulling the use of Kwadwo Asamoah following his new role at Italian giants Juventus. But at club level, the Ghanaian player is only used as a wingback, with the assurance of the formidable Georgio Chiellini behind him in a 3-5-2 formation, which Ghana does not employ.
The decision to drop Andre Ayew was suprising, and unless there was more to it than publicly available, somewhat hasty, considering that one of the issues behind the dispute and the request for delay in reporting to camp was his health. Surely a little flexibility on all concerned could've resolved this. Ghana are a better team with Andre Ayew in it, and although Bristol City's Albert Adomah brings greater speed on the flanks, his overall awareness of space, movement and the quality of his final ball is not on the level of Ayew.
In attack a lot would depend on the fitness of Gyan, but the sense watching him in the last few months is, he is yesterday's man. His fitness is doubtful and his trademark change of pace is almost all gone. But there is real potential in the young Juventus loanee, Richmond Boakye, especially if the team around him fully understands his lines of movement and can play to his strengths.
Following the failure in the last Nations Cup, Ghana needed a transition in playing personnel. So far, Kwesi Appiah seems to have the balance right but the challenge is in the quality of its game. Ghana look capable of improving on its last outing...
The biggest challenge of the Maghreb countries of Tunisia, Algeria and Morocco has been the lack of stability in playing personnel, coaching and ultimately team spirit, especially the latter. Each with a decent domestic game, especially Tunisia, an over reliance on players with dual nationality in the French league, has not always met the minimum requirements for team spirit, with some of these players lacking the ability to adapt to a different footballing culture, and no deliberate attempt made towards full integration.
Tunisia appeared to have begun to address this from the last nations cup and continues on the same path with the current team. Sadly, the excellent young forward, Youssef M'sakni opted to take his football to the Emirates.
After an excellent first half in the last quarter finals against Ghana, Tunisia would retreat into a familiar cynical, defensive shell. In a tough first round group with Ivory Coast, Algeria and Togo, I fully expect a safety first, counterattacking approach. The opening game against a young Algerian team will determine the success of this approach.
After an excellent first half in the last quarter finals against Ghana, Tunisia would retreat into a familiar cynical, defensive shell. In a tough first round group with Ivory Coast, Algeria and Togo, I fully expect a safety first, counterattacking approach. The opening game against a young Algerian team will determine the success of this approach.
Nigeria remains a hard team to assess going into the tournament. In attack, it has talented players, especially in wide areas, notably with Victor Moses and Ahmed Musa who has just had his best season yet in Europe. But in several areas of the team it lacks depth, especially in defence, and has few, if any players who can change a game from the bench.
In the attacking phase, the team is especially dependent on the ability of its wide players to unbalance the opponent in 1v1 situations, often struggling with a deeply defensive opponent, or a team doubling the lines of defense on the flanks and forcing it to attack centrally.
In midfield, Mikel Obi stands head and shoulders over his team mates, especially with Joel Obi unavailable through injury. The rest are emerging internationals, with Nosa Igiebor the most notable in the playmaking role in a midfield trio.
There remains a lack of clarity about the right mix of players and roles around Mikel Obi and especially how expansive his role might be, given the context of his well established position at Chelsea. Under Samson Siasia, the use of Joel Obi in a deep role beside him, provided the platform for him to assume a more general role and gave the team balance in central midfield. Without the Inter Milan player, it would seem that the team is somewhat unbalanced in midfield, with the lines of movement and support systems a little unclear.
However, Keshi appears to have staked considerable weight in the role of the as yet unproven Kano Pillars player Reuben Gabriel. But he is coming out of a major groin injury and has not played a competitive game in months. The two available options here are Fengor Ogude, who too is returning from a long term injury, and the hard grafting Onazi Ogenyi. Onazi who has recently broken into the first team in Lazio is often used higher up the field in Italy because of his inconsistency on the defensive side, including vulnerability to pressure. But he is one to watch...
There remains a lack of clarity about the right mix of players and roles around Mikel Obi and especially how expansive his role might be, given the context of his well established position at Chelsea. Under Samson Siasia, the use of Joel Obi in a deep role beside him, provided the platform for him to assume a more general role and gave the team balance in central midfield. Without the Inter Milan player, it would seem that the team is somewhat unbalanced in midfield, with the lines of movement and support systems a little unclear.
However, Keshi appears to have staked considerable weight in the role of the as yet unproven Kano Pillars player Reuben Gabriel. But he is coming out of a major groin injury and has not played a competitive game in months. The two available options here are Fengor Ogude, who too is returning from a long term injury, and the hard grafting Onazi Ogenyi. Onazi who has recently broken into the first team in Lazio is often used higher up the field in Italy because of his inconsistency on the defensive side, including vulnerability to pressure. But he is one to watch...
In Victor Moses and Ahmed Musa the team probably has the tournaments best duo of wide forwards, for attacking the inside of fullbacks. Unfortunately the absence of quality lateral defenders means the team does not effectively attack the space it creates on the outside. What is more, Keshi sometimes inexplicably employs strikers in wide positions, which often muddles the lines of movement and reduces their effectiveness.
In Emmanuel Emenike, Nigeria has a powerful forward, but often the play from midfield tends not to flow in the direction of his strengths. Conversely, Ike Uche, the teams most prolific forward, seems to thrive best when playing between the lines.
These two combine to create a certain lack of clear identity in attack between a fluid system involving three interchangeable forwards, or the powerful central striker holding up the ball and playing with back to goal.
While not especially strong in its tactical organization, often requiring halftime adjustments to come to terms with its own game and an opponent's approach, this is a very determined and motivated group.
In central defence, it is unclear who will partner Joseph Yobo. Keshi appears to have little confidence in Efe Ambrose in this role, in spite of his performances at Celtic, often preferring to play him at right back, where he has been ineffective.
The major problem here is a lack of consistency along the defensive lines, especially with respect to the support systems, whether it be in the pressing system or the poorly formed zonal system. The result is often that the team leaves undefended zones, typically behind the central midfield or in lateral defence.
I suspect Nigeria will have to work hard to get the result it needs against Burkina Faso, who will match them physically in midfield. The difference may well be in the extra quality of key individual players...
The sense I get watching South Africa over these past several months is that the Nations Cup might be coming a few months early for coach Gordon Igesund. The result is that this team will grow with the tournament, and needs a win its opening game to generate the momentum for a run at the title. A high tempo attacking game, based on a generic 4-4-2 formation is often compromised by the absence of a real playmaker who can link up play in the last third, or control the tempo by giving the team 'pause' in the attacking phase. The result is a tendency to force play and frequent loss of possession, leaving the team vulnerable to the counter.
This could be an important factor against Cape Verde.
What is more, with the wide players often hugging the flanks, there is not enough players getting in the box, while in the non-possession phase, the team is stretched.
In my opinion South Africa may be better served with Tshabalala adopting a more central role, playing behind a lone striker.
Ironically, some of the team's best performances have come from playing on the counterattack.
Zambia in my opinion won the Nations Cup without ever being great. A hardworking team, with great team spirit, this in my opinion, is probably the only team among the top countries to actually improve over the last one year.
There is a greater assurance about this side and clarity of ideas in finding solutions on the field. Nowhere was this more apparent than in the recent world cup qualifiers against Ghana.
But shorn of the element of suprise, this will be an even more difficult tournament for Zambia than the last one.
The key players remain intact, especially in defence, but the pace of Himonde in central defence is suspect.
The most exciting new thing about this team appears to be the young, precocious Power Dynamos midfielder, Mukuka Mulenga, whom I expect to be introduced gradually into the tournament.
New Players to Watch in AFCON 2013
1. Christian Atsu (Ghana)
2. Ahmed Musa (Nigeria)
3. Oussama Assaidi (Morocco)
4. Mukuka Mulenga (Zambia)
5. Abdul Razak (Ivory Coast)
6. Victor Moses (Nigeria)
7. Dieumerci Mbokani (DR Congo)
8. Albert Adomah (Ghana)
In central defence, it is unclear who will partner Joseph Yobo. Keshi appears to have little confidence in Efe Ambrose in this role, in spite of his performances at Celtic, often preferring to play him at right back, where he has been ineffective.
The major problem here is a lack of consistency along the defensive lines, especially with respect to the support systems, whether it be in the pressing system or the poorly formed zonal system. The result is often that the team leaves undefended zones, typically behind the central midfield or in lateral defence.
I suspect Nigeria will have to work hard to get the result it needs against Burkina Faso, who will match them physically in midfield. The difference may well be in the extra quality of key individual players...
The sense I get watching South Africa over these past several months is that the Nations Cup might be coming a few months early for coach Gordon Igesund. The result is that this team will grow with the tournament, and needs a win its opening game to generate the momentum for a run at the title. A high tempo attacking game, based on a generic 4-4-2 formation is often compromised by the absence of a real playmaker who can link up play in the last third, or control the tempo by giving the team 'pause' in the attacking phase. The result is a tendency to force play and frequent loss of possession, leaving the team vulnerable to the counter.
This could be an important factor against Cape Verde.
What is more, with the wide players often hugging the flanks, there is not enough players getting in the box, while in the non-possession phase, the team is stretched.
In my opinion South Africa may be better served with Tshabalala adopting a more central role, playing behind a lone striker.
Ironically, some of the team's best performances have come from playing on the counterattack.
Zambia in my opinion won the Nations Cup without ever being great. A hardworking team, with great team spirit, this in my opinion, is probably the only team among the top countries to actually improve over the last one year.
There is a greater assurance about this side and clarity of ideas in finding solutions on the field. Nowhere was this more apparent than in the recent world cup qualifiers against Ghana.
But shorn of the element of suprise, this will be an even more difficult tournament for Zambia than the last one.
The key players remain intact, especially in defence, but the pace of Himonde in central defence is suspect.
The most exciting new thing about this team appears to be the young, precocious Power Dynamos midfielder, Mukuka Mulenga, whom I expect to be introduced gradually into the tournament.
New Players to Watch in AFCON 2013
1. Christian Atsu (Ghana)
2. Ahmed Musa (Nigeria)
3. Oussama Assaidi (Morocco)
4. Mukuka Mulenga (Zambia)
5. Abdul Razak (Ivory Coast)
6. Victor Moses (Nigeria)
7. Dieumerci Mbokani (DR Congo)
8. Albert Adomah (Ghana)
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